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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 3,2x - 3,6x | 3,4x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 3,2x - 3,6x | 3,4x |
| Fair Value | ¥2.818 - ¥3.091 | ¥2.954 |
| Upside | -0,4% - 9,2% | 4,4% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha, Ltd. | 9107 | TSE:9107 |
| Mitsui O.S.K. Lines, Ltd. | 9104 | TSE:9104 |
| Senkon Logistics Co., Ltd. | 9051 | TSE:9051 |
| Keisei Electric Railway Co., Ltd. | 9009 | TSE:9009 |
| Ichinen Holdings Co.,Ltd. | 9619 | TSE:9619 |
| ZERO Co., Ltd. | 9028 | TSE:9028 |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| 9107 | 9104 | 9051 | 9009 | 9619 | 9028 | ||
| TSE:9107 | TSE:9104 | TSE:9051 | TSE:9009 | TSE:9619 | TSE:9028 | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 52.0% | 20.1% | 9.1% | 0.5% | 5.5% | 18.5% | |
| 3Y CAGR | 79.3% | 25.3% | -2.5% | 68.8% | 3.2% | 6.9% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 39.8% | 25.1% | 18.6% | 18.6% | 7.3% | 40.4% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 9.6% | 11.6% | 8.3% | 15.3% | 20.5% | 8.8% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 12.9% | 13.7% | 8.6% | 16.6% | 19.6% | 7.6% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 13.5% | 15.7% | 7.3% | 19.8% | 18.8% | 8.4% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 14.7% | 15.7% | 7.9% | 22.1% | 18.8% | 10.0% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.07x | 0.83x | 0.50x | 2.49x | 0.85x | 0.30x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 0.5x | 5.3x | 6.3x | 11.3x | 4.5x | 3.0x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 0.7x | 9.8x | 12.6x | 22.7x | 12.9x | 4.7x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 0.5x | 5.3x | 11.3x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 1.0x | 2.2x | 2.7x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 3.2x | 3.4x | 3.6x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 14,512 | 14,512 | 14,512 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 47,149 | 49,631 | 52,112 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 3,862 | 3,862 | 3,862 | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 51,011 | 53,493 | 55,974 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 16.8 | 16.8 | 16.8 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 3,042.10 | 3,190.09 | 3,338.08 | ||||
| FX Rate: JPY/JPY | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 3,042.10 | 3,190.09 | 3,338.08 | 2,830.00 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | 7.5% | 12.7% | 18.0% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 9107 | 9104 | 9051 | 9009 | 9619 | 9028 | |
| Enterprise Value | 49,756 | 1,497,073 | 9,298 | 820,027 | 132,323 | 43,593 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 217,796 | 163,290 | 3,182 | 61,652 | 9,162 | 12,433 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 1,330,906 | 1,779,474 | 2,129 | 230,620 | 6,055 | 6,946 | |
| (-) Debt | (293,331) | (1,815,443) | (9,316) | (333,454) | (108,806) | (14,850) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (32,962) | (37,548) | (267) | (15,271) | (579) | (667) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 1,272,165 | 1,586,846 | 5,026 | 763,574 | 38,155 | 47,455 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 631.7 | 345.9 | 5.0 | 486.2 | 23.6 | 16.8 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 2,014.00 | 4,588.00 | 1,011.00 | 1,570.50 | 1,620.00 | 2,830.00 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 2,014.00 | 4,588.00 | 1,011.00 | 1,570.50 | 1,620.00 | 2,830.00 | |
| Trading Currency | JPY | JPY | JPY | JPY | JPY | JPY | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |