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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 11,7x - 13,0x | 12,4x |
| Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 7,0x - 7,7x | 7,3x |
| Fair Value | ¥388,71 - ¥459,93 | ¥424,32 |
| Upside | -4,7% - 12,8% | 4,1% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Blue Bird Corporation | BLBD | NasdaqGM:BLBD |
| The Hanshin Diesel Works, Ltd. | 6018 | TSE:6018 |
| Moriya Transportation Engineering and Manufacturing Co.,Ltd. | 6226 | TSE:6226 |
| Tokyo Kikai Seisakusho, Ltd. | 6335 | TSE:6335 |
| Kaji Technology Corporation | 6391 | TSE:6391 |
| Hino Motors, Ltd. | 7205 | TSE:7205 |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| BLBD | 6018 | 6226 | 6335 | 6391 | 7205 | ||
| NasdaqGM:BLBD | TSE:6018 | TSE:6226 | TSE:6335 | TSE:6391 | TSE:7205 | ||
| Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 21.2% | -6.9% | NM- | 9.8% | 27.8% | NM- | |
| 3Y CAGR | 128.3% | 5.2% | 15.4% | 63.0% | 26.0% | NM- | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 36.9% | -61.6% | 79.4% | -48.5% | 28.0% | 1007.2% | |
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 3.2% | 5.3% | 12.1% | 1.6% | 7.6% | 1.3% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 4.5% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 7.7% | 4.0% | 1.2% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 10.3% | 5.7% | 14.8% | 6.6% | 10.6% | -0.5% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 10.0% | 2.1% | 19.1% | 6.4% | 12.3% | 2.0% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.75x | 0.23x | 2.19x | -0.42x | 0.60x | 0.24x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 6.8x | 4.0x | 10.9x | -5.2x | 3.8x | 4.5x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 7.5x | 11.0x | 11.5x | -6.6x | 4.8x | 12.3x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | -6.6x | 7.5x | 11.5x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBIT | -129.3x | 7.2x | 108.4x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 11.7x | 12.4x | 13.0x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBIT | 32,297 | 32,297 | 32,297 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 379,442 | 399,413 | 419,384 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (165,246) | (165,246) | (165,246) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 214,196 | 234,167 | 254,138 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 574.0 | 574.0 | 574.0 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 373.14 | 407.92 | 442.71 | ||||
| FX Rate: JPY/JPY | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 373.14 | 407.92 | 442.71 | 407.70 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -8.5% | 0.1% | 8.6% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | BLBD | 6018 | 6226 | 6335 | 6391 | 7205 | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,006 | (566) | 39,874 | (3,652) | 4,496 | 399,284 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 136 | 5,105 | 4,333 | 7,552 | 2,272 | 84,321 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 34 | 2,924 | 1,561 | 353 | 420 | 163,250 | |
| (-) Debt | (94) | 0 | 0 | 0 | (1,384) | (341,599) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | 0 | 0 | 0 | (1,080) | 0 | (71,218) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 1,082 | 7,463 | 45,768 | 3,173 | 5,804 | 234,038 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 32.1 | 3.2 | 17.5 | 8.1 | 1.7 | 574.0 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 33.71 | 2,304.00 | 2,610.00 | 393.00 | 3,505.00 | 407.70 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 33.71 | 2,304.00 | 2,610.00 | 393.00 | 3,505.00 | 407.70 | |
| Trading Currency | USD | JPY | JPY | JPY | JPY | JPY | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |