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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 7,2x - 8,0x | 7,6x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 5,2x - 5,7x | 5,5x |
| Fair Value | ¥2.798 - ¥3.090 | ¥2.944 |
| Upside | -24,5% - -16,7% | -20,6% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| NSK Ltd. | 6471 | TSE:6471 |
| Amada Co., Ltd. | 6113 | TSE:6113 |
| Nippon Thompson Co., Ltd. | 6480 | TSE:6480 |
| Union Tool Co. | 6278 | TSE:6278 |
| YASKAWA Electric Corporation | 6506 | TSE:6506 |
| THK Co., Ltd. | 6481 | TSE:6481 |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| 6471 | 6113 | 6480 | 6278 | 6506 | 6481 | ||
| TSE:6471 | TSE:6113 | TSE:6480 | TSE:6278 | TSE:6506 | TSE:6481 | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | -8.7% | 5.5% | -4.5% | 11.2% | 12.0% | 2.7% | |
| 3Y CAGR | 11.2% | 29.3% | 25.6% | 6.4% | 0.4% | -4.4% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -15.0% | -9.7% | -46.9% | 51.1% | -18.0% | 10.5% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 9.1% | 17.2% | 12.3% | 27.3% | 13.5% | 13.0% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 9.7% | 18.6% | 18.9% | 25.5% | 15.0% | 12.7% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 10.0% | 18.8% | 11.8% | 29.9% | 13.2% | 11.9% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 9.1% | 17.0% | 8.1% | 29.9% | 13.2% | 11.9% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.09x | 1.02x | 0.54x | 1.13x | 1.67x | 1.07x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 1.0x | 6.0x | 6.7x | 3.8x | 12.7x | 8.9x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 3.7x | 8.5x | 27.6x | 5.4x | 17.9x | 21.1x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 1.0x | 6.0x | 12.7x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 4.0x | 7.7x | 17.7x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 7.2x | 7.6x | 8.0x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 42,127 | 42,127 | 42,127 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 304,424 | 320,446 | 336,469 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 3,017 | 3,017 | 3,017 | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 307,441 | 323,463 | 339,486 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 111.9 | 111.9 | 111.9 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 2,748.57 | 2,891.81 | 3,035.05 | ||||
| FX Rate: JPY/JPY | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 2,748.57 | 2,891.81 | 3,035.05 | 3,708.00 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -25.9% | -22.0% | -18.1% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 6471 | 6113 | 6480 | 6278 | 6506 | 6481 | |
| Enterprise Value | 70,831 | 404,168 | 29,081 | 36,849 | 891,197 | 411,741 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 156,312 | 95,600 | 21,716 | 18,133 | 59,028 | 96,229 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 99,838 | 697 | 16,985 | 11,094 | 4,373 | 20,820 | |
| (-) Debt | 0 | (13,093) | (33,645) | 0 | (109,526) | (107,996) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (18,059) | (4,681) | 0 | 0 | (8,421) | (6,036) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 308,922 | 482,691 | 34,137 | 66,076 | 836,651 | 414,758 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 488.8 | 321.3 | 69.1 | 17.3 | 259.3 | 111.9 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 632.00 | 1,502.50 | 494.00 | 3,825.00 | 3,226.00 | 3,708.00 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 632.00 | 1,502.50 | 494.00 | 3,825.00 | 3,226.00 | 3,708.00 | |
| Trading Currency | JPY | JPY | JPY | JPY | JPY | JPY | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |