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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 57,6x - 63,7x | 60,6x |
| Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 31,0x - 34,3x | 32,7x |
| Fair Value | ¥16,83 - ¥18,68 | ¥17,75 |
| Upside | -40,3% - -33,7% | -37,0% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Xingfa Aluminium Holdings Limited | 98 | SEHK:98 |
| Zhangjiagang Guangda Special Material Co., Ltd. | 688186 | SHSE:688186 |
| Zhejiang Zhongke Magnetic Industry Co., Ltd. | 301141 | SZSE:301141 |
| Zhe Jiang Hai Liang Co., Ltd | 2203 | SZSE:002203 |
| Kailuan Energy Chemical Co.,Ltd. | 600997 | SHSE:600997 |
| Shanghai Zhongzhou Special Alloy Materials Co., Ltd. | 300963 | SZSE:300963 |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| 98 | 688186 | 301141 | 2203 | 600997 | 300963 | ||
| SEHK:98 | SHSE:688186 | SZSE:301141 | SZSE:002203 | SHSE:600997 | SZSE:300963 | ||
| Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 3.1% | 6.2% | NM- | -2.4% | -17.9% | 7.2% | |
| 3Y CAGR | -3.7% | 3.8% | NM- | -1.5% | -38.8% | 31.7% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -0.4% | 211.3% | 206.6% | -40.2% | -41.7% | 34.9% | |
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 6.0% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 1.9% | 8.5% | 9.1% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 5.6% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 2.2% | 5.9% | 7.5% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 5.1% | 6.0% | -0.1% | 1.4% | 3.4% | 9.5% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 5.1% | 8.1% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 3.1% | 9.5% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.17x | 2.42x | 7.09x | 0.45x | 0.40x | 8.96x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 2.1x | 14.8x | 105.1x | 20.0x | 4.8x | 76.9x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 3.3x | 29.9x | 244.9x | 36.2x | 12.8x | 94.5x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | 3.3x | 29.9x | 244.9x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBIT | 29.9x | 34.2x | 67.6x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 57.6x | 60.6x | 63.7x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBIT | 99 | 99 | 99 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 5,680 | 5,979 | 6,278 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (253) | (253) | (253) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 5,427 | 5,726 | 6,025 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 327.6 | 327.6 | 327.6 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 16.57 | 17.48 | 18.39 | ||||
| FX Rate: CNY/CNY | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 16.57 | 17.48 | 18.39 | 28.18 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -41.2% | -38.0% | -34.7% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 98 | 688186 | 301141 | 2203 | 600997 | 300963 | |
| Enterprise Value | 3,187 | 10,263 | 4,156 | 38,900 | 8,105 | 9,485 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 2,726 | 599 | 509 | 5,653 | 6,189 | 65 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 23 | 0 | 0 | 2,135 | 1,666 | 0 | |
| (-) Debt | (2,880) | (4,888) | (8) | (24,592) | (5,565) | (319) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (10) | (382) | (2) | (2,555) | (995) | 0 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 3,047 | 5,592 | 4,655 | 19,541 | 9,400 | 9,232 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 420.6 | 214.2 | 124.0 | 1,917.7 | 1,587.8 | 327.6 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 7.24 | 26.10 | 37.53 | 10.19 | 5.92 | 28.18 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 0.92 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 7.87 | 26.10 | 37.53 | 10.19 | 5.92 | 28.18 | |
| Trading Currency | HKD | CNY | CNY | CNY | CNY | CNY | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 0.92 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |