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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 24,2x - 26,7x | 25,4x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 18,5x - 20,4x | 19,4x |
| Fair Value | ¥29,14 - ¥31,76 | ¥30,45 |
| Upside | -1,1% - 7,9% | 3,4% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Shandong Homey Aquatic Development Co.,Ltd. | 600467 | SHSE:600467 |
| Ligao Foods Co.,Ltd. | 300973 | SZSE:300973 |
| Yihai International Holding Ltd. | 1579 | SEHK:1579 |
| Leshan Giantstar Farming&Husbandry Corporation Limited | 603477 | SHSE:603477 |
| Jiangsu Chinagreen Biological Technology Group Co., Ltd. | 300970 | SZSE:300970 |
| Panda Dairy Corporation | 300898 | SZSE:300898 |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| 600467 | 300973 | 1579 | 603477 | 300970 | 300898 | ||
| SHSE:600467 | SZSE:300973 | SEHK:1579 | SHSE:603477 | SZSE:300970 | SZSE:300898 | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 2.3% | 17.1% | 2.6% | 73.0% | NM- | 2.2% | |
| 3Y CAGR | 8.4% | -14.7% | 1.6% | 25.5% | -10.0% | 12.8% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -23.4% | -21.6% | -5.5% | 1237.3% | -71.7% | 9.2% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 28.1% | 11.2% | 21.7% | 13.2% | 18.1% | 12.9% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 34.6% | 8.2% | 21.5% | -2.5% | 20.2% | 8.4% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 26.2% | 5.6% | 19.1% | 18.9% | 14.6% | 13.7% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 23.2% | 7.5% | 19.1% | 18.9% | 5.3% | 16.0% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 3.75x | 1.92x | 1.57x | 2.27x | 1.79x | 3.89x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 16.2x | 25.6x | 8.2x | 12.0x | 33.6x | 24.3x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 43.0x | 49.6x | 9.3x | 18.3x | -21.9x | 29.9x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 8.2x | 16.2x | 33.6x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 22.9x | 33.4x | 64.9x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 24.2x | 25.4x | 26.7x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 129 | 129 | 129 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 3,117 | 3,281 | 3,445 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 523 | 523 | 523 | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 3,640 | 3,804 | 3,968 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 124.0 | 124.0 | 124.0 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 29.35 | 30.68 | 32.00 | ||||
| FX Rate: CNY/CNY | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 29.35 | 30.68 | 32.00 | 29.45 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -0.3% | 4.2% | 8.7% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 600467 | 300973 | 1579 | 603477 | 300970 | 300898 | |
| Enterprise Value | 5,497 | 6,920 | 10,244 | 13,749 | 1,753 | 3,129 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 400 | 1,088 | 2,127 | 578 | 337 | 544 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 186 | 42 | 461 | 24 | 0 | 10 | |
| (-) Debt | (2,723) | (1,039) | (94) | (3,846) | (600) | (21) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (14) | (14) | (164) | (38) | (25) | (10) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 3,346 | 6,997 | 12,574 | 10,467 | 1,465 | 3,652 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 1,461.0 | 167.9 | 970.1 | 510.1 | 117.9 | 124.0 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 2.29 | 41.67 | 12.96 | 20.52 | 12.43 | 29.45 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.94 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 2.29 | 41.67 | 13.84 | 20.52 | 12.43 | 29.45 | |
| Trading Currency | CNY | CNY | HKD | CNY | CNY | CNY | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.94 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |