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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 25,6x - 28,3x | 26,9x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 18,7x - 20,6x | 19,6x |
| Fair Value | ¥27,71 - ¥30,41 | ¥29,06 |
| Upside | -30,4% - -23,6% | -27,0% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Tongcheng Travel Holdings Limited | 780 | SEHK:780 |
| Changbai Mountain Tourism Co., Ltd. | 603099 | SHSE:603099 |
| Haidilao International Holding Ltd. | 6862 | SEHK:6862 |
| GreenTree Hospitality Group Ltd. | GHG | NYSE:GHG |
| Atour Lifestyle Holdings Limited | ATAT | NasdaqGS:ATAT |
| Western Regions Tourism Development Co.,Ltd | 300859 | SZSE:300859 |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| 780 | 603099 | 6862 | GHG | ATAT | 300859 | ||
| SEHK:780 | SHSE:603099 | SEHK:6862 | NYSE:GHG | NasdaqGS:ATAT | SZSE:300859 | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 22.0% | 10.7% | 13.4% | -2.6% | 60.1% | 7.4% | |
| 3Y CAGR | 40.8% | NM- | 27.2% | 6.9% | 80.1% | NM- | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 39.1% | 26.7% | 6.4% | -14.3% | 67.5% | -10.0% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 16.5% | 12.1% | 14.6% | 23.4% | 16.7% | 29.6% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 21.3% | -11.3% | 18.7% | -16.0% | 21.6% | 18.7% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 20.3% | 38.6% | 19.3% | 28.9% | 23.3% | 48.1% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 20.3% | 34.8% | 19.3% | 31.3% | 23.3% | 45.1% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 2.11x | 12.88x | 2.02x | 0.96x | 2.75x | 19.39x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 10.4x | 37.1x | 10.4x | 3.1x | 11.8x | 43.0x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 15.0x | 48.2x | 14.2x | 4.1x | 12.3x | 55.9x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 3.1x | 10.4x | 37.1x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | -292.9x | 35.8x | 462.7x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 25.6x | 26.9x | 28.3x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 138 | 138 | 138 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 3,535 | 3,721 | 3,907 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 317 | 317 | 317 | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 3,852 | 4,038 | 4,224 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 155.0 | 155.0 | 155.0 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 24.85 | 26.05 | 27.25 | ||||
| FX Rate: CNY/CNY | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 24.85 | 26.05 | 27.25 | 39.80 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -37.6% | -34.5% | -31.5% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 780 | 603099 | 6862 | GHG | ATAT | 300859 | |
| Enterprise Value | 37,039 | 9,095 | 87,105 | 1,337 | 20,007 | 5,852 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 11,311 | 295 | 9,580 | 1,536 | 4,885 | 351 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 3,969 | 4 | 2,502 | 475 | 0 | 96 | |
| (-) Debt | (5,008) | (71) | (6,168) | (1,741) | (1,733) | (108) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (961) | 0 | 16 | (35) | 10 | (21) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 46,350 | 9,323 | 93,035 | 1,571 | 23,169 | 6,169 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 2,286.0 | 266.7 | 5,574.0 | 101.5 | 137.6 | 155.0 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 20.28 | 34.96 | 16.69 | 15.47 | 168.39 | 39.80 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 0.94 | 1.00 | 0.94 | 7.30 | 7.30 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 21.55 | 34.96 | 17.74 | 2.12 | 23.07 | 39.80 | |
| Trading Currency | HKD | CNY | HKD | USD | USD | CNY | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 0.94 | 1.00 | 0.94 | 7.30 | 7.30 | 1.00 | |