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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 24,4x - 26,9x | 25,7x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 7,3x - 8,1x | 7,7x |
| Fair Value | ¥4,19 - ¥4,77 | ¥4,48 |
| Upside | -36,6% - -27,9% | -32,3% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Changhong Huayi Compressor Co., Ltd. | 404 | SZSE:000404 |
| Jiangsu Bide Science and Technology Co.,Ltd. | 605298 | SHSE:605298 |
| China CSSC Holdings Limited | 600150 | SHSE:600150 |
| Shanghai Zhenhua Heavy Industries Co., Ltd. | 900947 | SHSE:900947 |
| Shanghai Hanbell Precise Machinery Co., Ltd. | 2158 | SZSE:002158 |
| Dayu Irrigation Group Co.,Ltd | 300021 | SZSE:300021 |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| 404 | 605298 | 600150 | 900947 | 2158 | 300021 | ||
| SZSE:000404 | SHSE:605298 | SHSE:600150 | SHSE:900947 | SZSE:002158 | SZSE:300021 | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 27.9% | -11.7% | 70.7% | -5.9% | 22.5% | -9.1% | |
| 3Y CAGR | 33.8% | -8.3% | 100.4% | 19.8% | 15.8% | -18.0% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 11.7% | 194.6% | 28.2% | -7.0% | -11.7% | -27.1% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 4.3% | 21.1% | 1.2% | 7.9% | 24.8% | 8.3% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 5.4% | 9.0% | 3.8% | 7.5% | 28.0% | 6.9% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 6.6% | 14.7% | 3.8% | 6.8% | 27.6% | 4.1% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 6.5% | 17.6% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 27.4% | 4.0% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.15x | 5.47x | 1.22x | 1.14x | 2.26x | 1.43x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 2.3x | 31.0x | 25.4x | 16.6x | 8.2x | 35.9x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 2.9x | 42.6x | 49.1x | 45.0x | 9.4x | 47.8x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 2.3x | 16.6x | 31.0x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 14.6x | 22.0x | 26.1x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 24.4x | 25.7x | 26.9x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 177 | 177 | 177 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 4,314 | 4,541 | 4,768 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (1,158) | (1,158) | (1,158) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 3,156 | 3,383 | 3,610 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 891.7 | 891.7 | 891.7 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 3.54 | 3.79 | 4.05 | ||||
| FX Rate: CNY/CNY | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 3.54 | 3.79 | 4.05 | 6.61 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -46.5% | -42.6% | -38.7% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 404 | 605298 | 600150 | 900947 | 2158 | 300021 | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,828 | 2,673 | 96,904 | 38,622 | 7,969 | 7,052 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 5,685 | 131 | 61,427 | 4,898 | 1,847 | 1,396 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 955 | 0 | 17,062 | 1,964 | 394 | 517 | |
| (-) Debt | (2,082) | (11) | (16,130) | (24,148) | (647) | (2,783) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (1,340) | (3) | (4,517) | (2,486) | (23) | (287) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 5,046 | 2,790 | 154,746 | 18,851 | 9,539 | 5,894 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 696.0 | 187.9 | 4,472.4 | 9,538.3 | 534.7 | 891.7 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 7.25 | 14.85 | 34.60 | 1.98 | 17.84 | 6.61 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 7.16 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 7.25 | 14.85 | 34.60 | 0.28 | 17.84 | 6.61 | |
| Trading Currency | CNY | CNY | CNY | USD | CNY | CNY | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 7.16 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |