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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 18,7x - 20,6x | 19,7x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 26,0x - 28,7x | 27,3x |
| Fair Value | ¥11,66 - ¥12,89 | ¥12,27 |
| Upside | 17,4% - 29,8% | 23,6% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Jiamei Food Packaging (Chuzhou) Co.,Ltd | 2969 | SZSE:002969 |
| Shandong Xinjufeng Technology Packaging Co., Ltd. | 301296 | SZSE:301296 |
| Shanghai Zijiang Enterprise Group Co., Ltd. | 600210 | SHSE:600210 |
| Shanghai Baosteel Packaging Co., Ltd. | 601968 | SHSE:601968 |
| Xiamen Hexing Packaging Printing Co., Ltd. | 2228 | SZSE:002228 |
| Guangdong Tengen Industrial Group Co.,Ltd. | 3003 | SZSE:003003 |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| 2969 | 301296 | 600210 | 601968 | 2228 | 3003 | ||
| SZSE:002969 | SZSE:301296 | SHSE:600210 | SHSE:601968 | SZSE:002228 | SZSE:003003 | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | -1.2% | 11.8% | 7.6% | 12.4% | -9.6% | 5.5% | |
| 3Y CAGR | 22.0% | 1.8% | 7.0% | 7.8% | -10.0% | 9.9% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 49.9% | -2.0% | 22.0% | 0.1% | 13.7% | 19.6% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 12.1% | 17.4% | 12.6% | 8.9% | 3.7% | 6.6% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 7.8% | 15.3% | 12.9% | 7.8% | 2.4% | 3.5% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 14.1% | 15.4% | 13.5% | 9.4% | 3.5% | 7.5% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 16.0% | 13.8% | 13.5% | 8.8% | 3.9% | 9.6% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 1.25x | 1.75x | 1.03x | 0.81x | 0.40x | 1.48x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 7.8x | 12.8x | 7.6x | 9.2x | 10.3x | 15.4x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 13.6x | 15.7x | 10.5x | 21.1x | 26.4x | 25.5x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 7.6x | 9.2x | 12.8x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 19.9x | 30.6x | 51.4x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 18.7x | 19.7x | 20.6x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 114 | 114 | 114 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 2,122 | 2,233 | 2,345 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (8) | (8) | (8) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 2,114 | 2,225 | 2,337 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 175.2 | 175.2 | 175.2 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 12.07 | 12.70 | 13.34 | ||||
| FX Rate: CNY/CNY | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 12.07 | 12.70 | 13.34 | 9.93 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | 21.5% | 27.9% | 34.4% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 2969 | 301296 | 600210 | 601968 | 2228 | 3003 | |
| Enterprise Value | 3,774 | 3,070 | 10,946 | 6,527 | 4,700 | 1,747 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 453 | 453 | 2,036 | 641 | 532 | 353 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 54 | 837 | 1,588 | 201 | 65 | 0 | |
| (-) Debt | (1,023) | (240) | (3,473) | (1,164) | (1,462) | (362) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | 0 | 0 | (465) | (188) | (197) | 1 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 3,258 | 4,121 | 10,632 | 6,017 | 3,637 | 1,739 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 955.5 | 416.6 | 1,516.7 | 1,261.4 | 1,158.4 | 175.2 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 3.41 | 9.89 | 7.01 | 4.77 | 3.14 | 9.93 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 3.41 | 9.89 | 7.01 | 4.77 | 3.14 | 9.93 | |
| Trading Currency | CNY | CNY | CNY | CNY | CNY | CNY | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |