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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 8,8x - 9,7x | 9,3x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 6,3x - 7,0x | 6,7x |
| Fair Value | ¥10,61 - ¥11,57 | ¥11,09 |
| Upside | -10,7% - -2,6% | -6,7% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| CCL Industries Inc. | CCL.A | TSX:CCL.A |
| Silgan Holdings Inc. | SLGN | NYSE:SLGN |
| Sonoco Products Company | SON | NYSE:SON |
| Crown Holdings, Inc. | CCK | NYSE:CCK |
| Ball Corporation | BALL | NYSE:BALL |
| Huangshan Novel Co.,Ltd | 2014 | SZSE:002014 |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| CCL.A | SLGN | SON | CCK | BALL | 2014 | ||
| TSX:CCL.A | NYSE:SLGN | NYSE:SON | NYSE:CCK | NYSE:BALL | SZSE:002014 | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 7.0% | 7.1% | 3.6% | 5.2% | -0.7% | 11.7% | |
| 3Y CAGR | 8.2% | 1.3% | 65.3% | 89.5% | -5.6% | 13.4% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 12.8% | 6.2% | 18.9% | 10.8% | 11.9% | 5.3% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 19.5% | 15.0% | 13.3% | 12.7% | 14.9% | 16.2% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 19.1% | 14.5% | 16.6% | 15.2% | 14.7% | 18.1% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 19.7% | 15.0% | 16.9% | 16.1% | 15.2% | 18.5% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 19.9% | 15.2% | 17.3% | 16.8% | 15.7% | 18.5% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 2.08x | 1.67x | 2.02x | 1.53x | 1.83x | 1.80x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 10.5x | 11.0x | 11.7x | 9.2x | 11.7x | 9.7x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 14.2x | 16.2x | 19.8x | 11.8x | 17.1x | 12.6x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 9.2x | 11.0x | 11.7x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 8.2x | 8.7x | 9.9x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 8.8x | 9.3x | 9.7x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 655 | 655 | 655 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 5,756 | 6,059 | 6,361 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 919 | 919 | 919 | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 6,675 | 6,978 | 7,281 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 612.5 | 612.5 | 612.5 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 10.90 | 11.39 | 11.89 | ||||
| FX Rate: CNY/CNY | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 10.90 | 11.39 | 11.89 | 11.88 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -8.3% | -4.1% | 0.1% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | CCL.A | SLGN | SON | CCK | BALL | 2014 | |
| Enterprise Value | 15,293 | 10,047 | 10,078 | 18,267 | 22,035 | 6,357 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 821 | 353 | 182 | 779 | 453 | 1,763 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 68 | 0 | 1,461 | 0 | 241 | 104 | |
| (-) Debt | (2,574) | (4,629) | (7,461) | (6,645) | (7,062) | (900) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | 0 | 0 | (14) | (478) | (68) | (48) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 13,609 | 5,771 | 4,246 | 11,923 | 15,599 | 7,276 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 175.0 | 107.0 | 98.6 | 115.1 | 277.4 | 612.5 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 77.77 | 53.94 | 43.05 | 103.62 | 56.23 | 11.88 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 77.77 | 53.94 | 43.05 | 103.62 | 56.23 | 11.88 | |
| Trading Currency | CAD | USD | USD | USD | USD | CNY | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |