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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 30,2x - 33,3x | 31,8x |
Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 18,8x - 20,8x | 19,8x |
Fair Value | ¥39,12 - ¥42,33 | ¥40,73 |
Upside | -25,8% - -19,7% | -22,7% |
Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
Shanghai Flyco Electrical Appliance Co., Ltd. | 603868 | SHSE:603868 |
Golden Throat Holdings Group Company Limited | 6896 | SEHK:6896 |
Hengan International Group Company Limited | 1044 | SEHK:1044 |
Henan Rebecca Hair Products Co., Ltd. | 600439 | SHSE:600439 |
Byhealth Co., Ltd | 300146 | SZSE:300146 |
Dencare (Chongqing) Oral Care Co., Ltd. | 1328 | SZSE:001328 |
- | - | - |
Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
603868 | 6896 | 1044 | 600439 | 300146 | 1328 | ||
SHSE:603868 | SEHK:6896 | SEHK:1044 | SHSE:600439 | SZSE:300146 | SZSE:001328 | ||
Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
5Y CAGR | 2.2% | 15.8% | -8.1% | -19.5% | -7.5% | 25.4% | |
3Y CAGR | 10.9% | 22.7% | -6.1% | -14.8% | -21.7% | 7.6% | |
Latest Twelve Months | -36.3% | 22.1% | -13.2% | 5.6% | -61.5% | 48.2% | |
Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
5 Year Average Margin | 22.7% | 33.9% | 21.1% | 13.4% | 22.7% | 9.0% | |
Prior Fiscal Year | 24.1% | 38.7% | 18.2% | 8.2% | 22.0% | 8.5% | |
Latest Fiscal Year | 23.5% | 38.4% | 16.6% | 10.7% | 14.1% | 10.3% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 16.6% | 38.4% | 16.6% | 11.4% | 10.8% | 10.6% | |
Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
EV / LTM Revenue | 3.34x | 2.14x | 0.81x | 4.46x | 2.24x | 4.61x | |
EV / LTM EBITDA | 20.1x | 5.6x | 4.9x | 39.2x | 20.7x | 43.5x | |
EV / LTM EBIT | 23.8x | 6.0x | 6.5x | 52.3x | 31.4x | 49.7x | |
Low | Mid | High | |||||
Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 4.9x | 20.1x | 39.2x | ||||
Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 33.9x | 35.2x | 36.4x | ||||
Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 30.2x | 31.8x | 33.3x | ||||
(x) LTM EBITDA | 173 | 173 | 173 | ||||
(=) Implied Enterprise Value | 5,216 | 5,491 | 5,765 | ||||
(-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 1,483 | 1,483 | 1,483 | ||||
(=) Equity Value | 6,700 | 6,974 | 7,249 | ||||
(/) Shares Outstanding | 172.2 | 172.2 | 172.2 | ||||
Implied Value Range | 38.91 | 40.51 | 42.10 | ||||
FX Rate: CNY/CNY | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 38.91 | 40.51 | 42.10 | 52.70 | |||
Upside / (Downside) | -26.2% | -23.1% | -20.1% |
Equity Waterfall | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
(in millions) | 603868 | 6896 | 1044 | 600439 | 300146 | 1328 | |
Enterprise Value | 14,739 | 2,518 | 18,244 | 4,086 | 13,535 | 7,590 | |
(+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 1,618 | 1,141 | 14,376 | 0 | 5,596 | 1,128 | |
(+) Investments & Other | 194 | 0 | 4,665 | 0 | 999 | 355 | |
(-) Debt | (447) | (427) | (13,113) | 0 | (997) | 0 | |
(-) Other Liabilities | 0 | 0 | (225) | 0 | (58) | 0 | |
(-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Value of Common Equity | 16,104 | 3,231 | 23,948 | 4,086 | 19,073 | 9,074 | |
(/) Shares Outstanding | 435.6 | 739.3 | 1,162.1 | 1,132.0 | 1,683.4 | 172.2 | |
Implied Stock Price | 36.97 | 4.37 | 20.61 | 3.61 | 11.33 | 52.70 | |
FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 36.97 | 4.73 | 22.30 | 3.61 | 11.33 | 52.70 | |
Trading Currency | CNY | HKD | HKD | CNY | CNY | CNY | |
FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |