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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 11,3x - 12,5x | 11,9x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 10,7x - 11,8x | 11,2x |
| Fair Value | ¥4,63 - ¥5 | ¥4,82 |
| Upside | 14,4% - 23,4% | 18,9% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway Co., Ltd. | 601816 | SHSE:601816 |
| China Railway Tielong Container Logistics Co., Ltd | 600125 | SHSE:600125 |
| Sichuan Fulin Transportation Group Co., Ltd. | 2357 | SZSE:002357 |
| Daqin Railway Co., Ltd. | 601006 | SHSE:601006 |
| Guangshen Railway Company Limited | 601333 | SHSE:601333 |
| China Railway Special Cargo Logistics Co., Ltd. | 1213 | SZSE:001213 |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| 601816 | 600125 | 2357 | 601006 | 601333 | 1213 | ||
| SHSE:601816 | SHSE:600125 | SZSE:002357 | SHSE:601006 | SHSE:601333 | SZSE:001213 | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 5.7% | 1.0% | -7.6% | -4.3% | 4.1% | 5.6% | |
| 3Y CAGR | 23.3% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 0.4% | 81.6% | 7.6% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 27.5% | 22.2% | -38.0% | -14.2% | 1.2% | 16.4% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 52.4% | 6.2% | 19.3% | 26.2% | 5.1% | 11.9% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 40.1% | 6.7% | 16.3% | 25.2% | 12.9% | 10.7% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 58.0% | 7.0% | 17.8% | 25.1% | 12.6% | 12.1% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 58.7% | 7.6% | 13.1% | 21.9% | 12.6% | 12.1% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 8.62x | 0.45x | 1.73x | 1.13x | 0.66x | 1.16x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 14.7x | 5.9x | 13.2x | 5.2x | 5.2x | 9.6x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 19.3x | 9.2x | -50.0x | 7.4x | 12.3x | 19.7x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 5.2x | 5.9x | 14.7x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 11.3x | 11.6x | 21.6x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 11.3x | 11.9x | 12.5x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 1,315 | 1,315 | 1,315 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 14,839 | 15,620 | 16,401 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 5,209 | 5,209 | 5,209 | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 20,048 | 20,829 | 21,610 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 4,444.4 | 4,444.4 | 4,444.4 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 4.51 | 4.69 | 4.86 | ||||
| FX Rate: CNY/CNY | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 4.51 | 4.69 | 4.86 | 4.05 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | 11.4% | 15.7% | 20.1% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 601816 | 600125 | 2357 | 601006 | 601333 | 1213 | |
| Enterprise Value | 361,792 | 6,335 | 1,495 | 85,340 | 19,752 | 12,791 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 7,497 | 1,786 | 111 | 63,159 | 1,999 | 5,246 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 0 | 190 | 1,251 | 26,741 | 805 | 183 | |
| (-) Debt | (53,210) | (830) | (543) | (23,255) | (2,196) | (220) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (22,913) | (26) | (72) | (15,589) | 40 | 0 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 293,166 | 7,455 | 2,241 | 136,396 | 20,401 | 18,000 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 49,106.5 | 1,305.5 | 313.5 | 20,147.2 | 7,083.5 | 4,444.4 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 5.97 | 5.71 | 7.15 | 6.77 | 2.88 | 4.05 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 5.97 | 5.71 | 7.15 | 6.77 | 2.88 | 4.05 | |
| Trading Currency | CNY | CNY | CNY | CNY | CNY | CNY | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |