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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 17,1x - 18,9x | 18,0x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 17,8x - 19,7x | 18,7x |
| Fair Value | ¥15,58 - ¥17,62 | ¥16,60 |
| Upside | -4,5% - 8,0% | 1,7% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Jiangxi Changyun Co., Ltd. | 600561 | SHSE:600561 |
| DiDi Global Inc. | DIDI.Y | OTCPK:DIDI.Y |
| Longzhou Group Co., Ltd. | 2682 | SZSE:002682 |
| ANE (Cayman) Inc. | 9956 | SZSC:9956 |
| China High-Speed Railway Technology Co., Ltd. | 8 | SZSE:000008 |
| Jushen Logistics Group Co., Ltd. | 1202 | SZSE:001202 |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| 600561 | DIDI.Y | 2682 | 9956 | 8 | 1202 | ||
| SHSE:600561 | OTCPK:DIDI.Y | SZSE:002682 | SZSC:9956 | SZSE:000008 | SZSE:001202 | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 0.4% | NM- | -29.5% | 38.2% | NM- | 6.8% | |
| 3Y CAGR | -6.9% | NM- | -32.7% | 35.4% | NM- | 26.4% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 14.3% | 206.2% | -25.7% | 39.7% | 26.7% | 7.6% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 14.6% | -8.1% | 3.6% | 8.0% | -4.0% | 11.7% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 16.1% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 10.3% | -9.1% | 12.6% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 19.8% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 12.3% | -9.7% | 15.1% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 18.8% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 12.3% | -9.3% | 13.3% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 2.04x | 0.47x | 1.55x | 0.64x | 4.52x | 2.34x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 10.8x | 21.7x | 66.4x | 5.2x | -48.6x | 17.5x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 52.1x | 49.8x | -28.8x | 7.2x | -36.3x | 24.1x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | -48.6x | 10.8x | 66.4x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 14.8x | 21.1x | 28.4x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 17.1x | 18.0x | 18.9x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 145 | 145 | 145 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 2,482 | 2,613 | 2,743 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (483) | (483) | (483) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 1,999 | 2,130 | 2,260 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 126.3 | 126.3 | 126.3 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 15.83 | 16.86 | 17.89 | ||||
| FX Rate: CNY/CNY | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 15.83 | 16.86 | 17.89 | 16.32 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -3.0% | 3.3% | 9.6% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 600561 | DIDI.Y | 2682 | 9956 | 8 | 1202 | |
| Enterprise Value | 3,225 | 95,892 | 4,664 | 7,304 | 9,892 | 2,544 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 406 | 51,842 | 511 | 2,889 | 994 | 96 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 66 | 17,713 | 18 | 0 | 1,386 | 0 | |
| (-) Debt | (1,785) | (12,658) | (2,680) | (1,160) | (4,044) | (577) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (219) | (118) | 51 | (114) | (79) | (2) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 1,693 | 152,672 | 2,564 | 8,919 | 8,149 | 2,061 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 284.5 | 4,656.4 | 562.4 | 1,171.7 | 2,716.4 | 126.3 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 5.95 | 32.79 | 4.56 | 7.61 | 3.00 | 16.32 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 7.19 | 1.00 | 0.92 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 5.95 | 4.56 | 4.56 | 8.25 | 3.00 | 16.32 | |
| Trading Currency | CNY | USD | CNY | HKD | CNY | CNY | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 7.19 | 1.00 | 0.92 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |