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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM Revenue Multiple | 0,8x - 0,9x | 0,8x |
| Selected Fwd Revenue Multiple | 0,7x - 0,8x | 0,8x |
| Fair Value | ¥8,85 - ¥9,51 | ¥9,18 |
| Upside | -20,2% - -14,2% | -17,2% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
|---|---|---|
| Dongfeng Motor Group Company Limited | 489 | SEHK:489 |
| Jiangsu Xinri E-Vehicle Co., Ltd. | 603787 | SHSE:603787 |
| Seres Group Co.,Ltd | 601127 | SHSE:601127 |
| Guangdong Lvtong New Energy Electric Vehicle Technology Co., LTD | 301322 | SZSE:301322 |
| Zhejiang Taotao Vehicles Co., Ltd. | 301345 | SZSE:301345 |
| Loncin Motor Co., Ltd. | 603766 | SHSE:603766 |
| Select LTM Revenue Multiple | ||||||||
| Benchmark Companies | ||||||||
| 489 | 603787 | 601127 | 301322 | 301345 | 603766 | |||
| SEHK:489 | SHSE:603787 | SHSE:601127 | SZSE:301322 | SZSE:301345 | SHSE:603766 | |||
| Historical Revenue Growth | ||||||||
| 5Y CAGR | -1.0% | 6.1% | 12.1% | 27.7% | 28.3% | 3.1% | ||
| 3Y CAGR | -2.9% | -6.8% | 35.8% | 24.7% | 15.7% | 7.8% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | 17.7% | -12.0% | 354.7% | -20.0% | 58.2% | 29.7% | ||
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | ||||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | -6.7% | 0.9% | -12.4% | 18.6% | 15.0% | 6.1% | ||
| Prior Fiscal Year | -10.4% | 2.5% | -15.5% | 22.3% | 12.6% | 5.2% | ||
| Latest Fiscal Year | -10.6% | 1.1% | -17.7% | 22.0% | 13.0% | 6.9% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | -8.2% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 15.4% | 15.2% | 6.2% | ||
| Current Trading Multiples | ||||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | -0.32x | 0.44x | 1.09x | 2.11x | 2.10x | 1.10x | ||
| EV / LTM EBIT | 3.9x | 54.9x | 82.3x | 13.7x | 13.8x | 17.7x | ||
| Price / LTM Sales | 0.37x | 0.73x | 1.53x | 4.45x | 2.47x | 1.43x | ||
| Low | Mid | High | ||||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM Revenue | -0.32x | 1.09x | 2.11x | |||||
| Historical EV / LTM Revenue | 0.52x | 0.64x | 0.71x | |||||
| Selected EV / LTM Revenue | 0.80x | 0.85x | 0.89x | |||||
| (x) LTM Revenue | 15,921 | 15,921 | 15,921 | |||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 12,811 | 13,486 | 14,160 | |||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 5,328 | 5,328 | 5,328 | |||||
| (=) Equity Value | 18,140 | 18,814 | 19,488 | |||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 2,053.5 | 2,053.5 | 2,053.5 | |||||
| Implied Value Range | 8.83 | 9.16 | 9.49 | |||||
| FX Rate: CNY/CNY | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | ||||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 8.83 | 9.16 | 9.49 | 11.09 | ||||
| Upside / (Downside) | -20.3% | -17.4% | -14.4% | |||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 489 | 603787 | 601127 | 301322 | 301345 | 603766 | |
| Enterprise Value | (93,686) | 1,597 | 137,320 | 1,848 | 6,325 | 17,445 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 95,097 | 1,049 | 53,197 | 1,866 | 1,708 | 5,806 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 62,429 | 20 | 2,176 | 187 | 0 | 14 | |
| (-) Debt | (18,979) | (0) | (3,637) | (0) | (590) | (337) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (5,925) | (4) | 3,600 | 0 | (0) | (155) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 38,935 | 2,663 | 192,655 | 3,901 | 7,443 | 22,774 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 8,252.6 | 230.1 | 1,505.9 | 142.4 | 108.6 | 2,053.5 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 4.72 | 11.57 | 127.93 | 27.40 | 68.52 | 11.09 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 0.93 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 5.06 | 11.57 | 127.93 | 27.40 | 68.52 | 11.09 | |
| Trading Currency | HKD | CNY | CNY | CNY | CNY | CNY | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 0.93 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |