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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 16,5x - 18,3x | 17,4x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 8,5x - 9,4x | 9,0x |
| Fair Value | ¥13,36 - ¥14,47 | ¥13,91 |
| Upside | 16,4% - 26,0% | 21,2% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Xiamen King Long Motor Group Co., Ltd. | 600686 | SHSE:600686 |
| CIMC Vehicles (Group) Co., Ltd. | 301039 | SZSE:301039 |
| Zhejiang Langdi Group Co., Ltd. | 603726 | SHSE:603726 |
| Sany Heavy Equipment International Holdings Company Limited | 631 | SEHK:631 |
| Cscec Scimee Sci.&Tech. Co.,Ltd | 300425 | SZSE:300425 |
| Riyue Heavy Industry Co.,Ltd | 603218 | SHSE:603218 |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| 600686 | 301039 | 603726 | 631 | 300425 | 603218 | ||
| SHSE:600686 | SZSE:301039 | SHSE:603726 | SEHK:631 | SZSE:300425 | SHSE:603218 | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | -37.8% | -0.7% | 0.7% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 11.5% | |
| 3Y CAGR | -54.2% | 8.7% | -0.9% | 9.4% | 10.6% | -19.0% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 188.4% | -30.6% | 17.9% | -41.1% | -4.5% | -7.1% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | -0.1% | 7.2% | 11.4% | 10.9% | 18.5% | 16.2% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | -1.9% | 10.1% | 9.0% | 10.9% | 16.9% | 7.8% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 0.2% | 8.3% | 11.7% | 6.0% | 19.0% | 14.1% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 0.6% | 8.3% | 12.3% | 6.0% | 17.4% | 14.8% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.26x | 0.55x | 1.37x | 0.77x | 2.44x | 2.06x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 46.2x | 6.6x | 11.1x | 12.9x | 14.0x | 13.9x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | -17.8x | 9.1x | 15.8x | 20.2x | 20.9x | 40.4x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 6.6x | 12.9x | 46.2x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 14.1x | 24.7x | 55.1x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 16.5x | 17.4x | 18.3x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 640 | 640 | 640 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 10,583 | 11,140 | 11,697 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 2,899 | 2,899 | 2,899 | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 13,483 | 14,040 | 14,597 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 1,019.2 | 1,019.2 | 1,019.2 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 13.23 | 13.77 | 14.32 | ||||
| FX Rate: CNY/CNY | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 13.23 | 13.77 | 14.32 | 11.48 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | 15.2% | 20.0% | 24.7% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 600686 | 301039 | 603726 | 631 | 300425 | 603218 | |
| Enterprise Value | 4,957 | 11,529 | 2,448 | 16,780 | 4,211 | 8,802 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 8,324 | 5,797 | 192 | 7,733 | 104 | 3,267 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 2,106 | 258 | 426 | 98 | 94 | 79 | |
| (-) Debt | (5,754) | (571) | (357) | (10,024) | (864) | (356) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (1,000) | (559) | (3) | 46 | (181) | (91) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 8,633 | 16,455 | 2,705 | 14,633 | 3,363 | 11,701 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 717.0 | 1,874.1 | 183.8 | 3,213.9 | 682.2 | 1,019.2 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 12.04 | 8.78 | 14.72 | 4.55 | 4.93 | 11.48 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.94 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 12.04 | 8.78 | 14.72 | 4.83 | 4.93 | 11.48 | |
| Trading Currency | CNY | CNY | CNY | HKD | CNY | CNY | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.94 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |