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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Selected LTM Revenue Multiple | 1,2x - 1,3x | 1,2x |
Selected Fwd Revenue Multiple | 1,0x - 1,1x | 1,1x |
Fair Value | ¥6,76 - ¥7,21 | ¥6,98 |
Upside | 2,6% - 9,4% | 6,0% |
Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
---|---|---|
Guangshen Railway Company Limited | 601333 | SHSE:601333 |
China Railway Special Cargo Logistics Co., Ltd. | 1213 | SZSE:001213 |
Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. | YMM | NYSE:YMM |
Deewin Tianxia Co., Ltd | 2418 | SEHK:2418 |
Sichuan Fulin Transportation Group Co., Ltd. | 2357 | SZSE:002357 |
Daqin Railway Co., Ltd. | 601006 | SHSE:601006 |
Select LTM Revenue Multiple | ||||||||
Benchmark Companies | ||||||||
601333 | 1213 | YMM | 2418 | 2357 | 601006 | |||
SHSE:601333 | SZSE:001213 | NYSE:YMM | SEHK:2418 | SZSE:002357 | SHSE:601006 | |||
Historical Revenue Growth | ||||||||
5Y CAGR | 5.7% | 6.3% | 35.4% | NM- | -2.1% | 0.7% | ||
3Y CAGR | 17.0% | 8.1% | 34.1% | -1.5% | 11.2% | 3.7% | ||
Latest Twelve Months | 13.3% | 7.5% | 33.2% | 2.9% | 2.0% | -3.0% | ||
Historical EBIT Profit Margin | ||||||||
5 Year Average Margin | -3.4% | 5.4% | -39.5% | 10.2% | 2.3% | 18.8% | ||
Prior Fiscal Year | -13.0% | 4.2% | 12.7% | 10.6% | -1.0% | 18.6% | ||
Latest Fiscal Year | 5.8% | 6.0% | 22.0% | 7.1% | 2.1% | 18.9% | ||
Latest Twelve Months | 6.7% | 5.9% | 22.0% | 7.5% | -3.5% | 15.2% | ||
Current Trading Multiples | ||||||||
EV / LTM Revenue | 0.73x | 1.19x | 6.30x | 2.62x | 1.92x | 1.08x | ||
EV / LTM EBIT | 10.8x | 20.1x | 28.6x | 35.0x | -55.5x | 7.1x | ||
Price / LTM Sales | 0.74x | 1.67x | 8.98x | 1.27x | 2.78x | 1.75x | ||
Low | Mid | High | ||||||
Benchmark EV / LTM Revenue | 0.73x | 1.92x | 6.30x | |||||
Historical EV / LTM Revenue | 0.77x | 0.89x | 1.25x | |||||
Selected EV / LTM Revenue | 1.15x | 1.21x | 1.27x | |||||
(x) LTM Revenue | 75,437 | 75,437 | 75,437 | |||||
(=) Implied Enterprise Value | 86,793 | 91,361 | 95,929 | |||||
(-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 51,057 | 51,057 | 51,057 | |||||
(=) Equity Value | 137,850 | 142,418 | 146,986 | |||||
(/) Shares Outstanding | 20,147.2 | 20,147.2 | 20,147.2 | |||||
Implied Value Range | 6.84 | 7.07 | 7.30 | |||||
FX Rate: CNY/CNY | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | ||||
Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 6.84 | 7.07 | 7.30 | 6.59 | ||||
Upside / (Downside) | 3.8% | 7.3% | 10.7% |
Equity Waterfall | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
(in millions) | 601333 | 1213 | YMM | 2418 | 2357 | 601006 | |
Enterprise Value | 21,546 | 12,924 | 70,720 | 7,565 | 1,661 | 81,713 | |
(+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 2,332 | 5,246 | 20,813 | 1,585 | 111 | 63,159 | |
(+) Investments & Other | 781 | 183 | 9,876 | 7 | 1,251 | 26,741 | |
(-) Debt | (2,880) | (220) | (65) | (5,489) | (543) | (23,255) | |
(-) Other Liabilities | 39 | 0 | (458) | 0 | (72) | (15,589) | |
(-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Value of Common Equity | 21,817 | 18,133 | 100,886 | 3,668 | 2,408 | 132,770 | |
(/) Shares Outstanding | 7,083.5 | 4,444.4 | 1,045.8 | 2,181.4 | 313.5 | 20,147.2 | |
Implied Stock Price | 3.08 | 4.08 | 96.47 | 1.68 | 7.68 | 6.59 | |
FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 7.26 | 0.93 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 3.08 | 4.08 | 13.28 | 1.80 | 7.68 | 6.59 | |
Trading Currency | CNY | CNY | USD | HKD | CNY | CNY | |
FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 7.26 | 0.93 | 1.00 | 1.00 |