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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 32,5x - 35,9x | 34,2x |
Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 15,8x - 17,4x | 16,6x |
Fair Value | ¥54,85 - ¥60,62 | ¥57,74 |
Upside | -7,3% - 2,4% | -2,4% |
Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
Nongfu Spring Co., Ltd. | 9633 | SZSC:9633 |
Xinjiang Yilite Industry Co.,Ltd | 600197 | SHSE:600197 |
Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery Co., Ltd. | 2304 | SZSE:002304 |
Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co., Ltd. | 603589 | SHSE:603589 |
Jiangsu King's Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.,Ltd. | 603369 | SHSE:603369 |
Shede Spirits Co., Ltd. | 600702 | SHSE:600702 |
- | - | - |
Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
9633 | 600197 | 2304 | 603589 | 603369 | 600702 | ||
SZSC:9633 | SHSE:600197 | SZSE:002304 | SHSE:603589 | SHSE:603369 | SHSE:600702 | ||
Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
5Y CAGR | 17.7% | -2.8% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 24.0% | -5.1% | |
3Y CAGR | 16.7% | 1.6% | 19.1% | 12.9% | 33.3% | -30.3% | |
Latest Twelve Months | -1.3% | 38.8% | -24.2% | -2.5% | 20.9% | -75.2% | |
Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
5 Year Average Margin | 29.8% | 20.9% | 37.0% | 40.5% | 36.2% | 30.2% | |
Prior Fiscal Year | 32.7% | 13.3% | 38.9% | 39.6% | 38.2% | 31.4% | |
Latest Fiscal Year | 32.1% | 20.1% | 36.9% | 38.7% | 38.1% | 10.3% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 32.1% | 20.4% | 32.9% | 37.9% | 38.4% | 10.3% | |
Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
EV / LTM Revenue | 8.48x | 2.98x | 2.56x | 3.38x | 4.62x | 3.67x | |
EV / LTM EBITDA | 22.3x | 11.7x | 7.3x | 7.8x | 11.7x | 26.9x | |
EV / LTM EBIT | 26.4x | 14.6x | 7.8x | 8.9x | 12.0x | 35.7x | |
Low | Mid | High | |||||
Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | 7.8x | 12.0x | 26.4x | ||||
Historical EV / LTM EBIT | 13.3x | 35.7x | 46.4x | ||||
Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 32.5x | 34.2x | 35.9x | ||||
(x) LTM EBIT | 551 | 551 | 551 | ||||
(=) Implied Enterprise Value | 17,894 | 18,836 | 19,778 | ||||
(-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 20 | 20 | 20 | ||||
(=) Equity Value | 17,915 | 18,856 | 19,798 | ||||
(/) Shares Outstanding | 329.2 | 329.2 | 329.2 | ||||
Implied Value Range | 54.41 | 57.28 | 60.14 | ||||
FX Rate: CNY/CNY | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 54.41 | 57.28 | 60.14 | 59.17 | |||
Upside / (Downside) | -8.0% | -3.2% | 1.6% |
Equity Waterfall | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
(in millions) | 9633 | 600197 | 2304 | 603589 | 603369 | 600702 | |
Enterprise Value | 365,182 | 6,679 | 77,455 | 19,853 | 53,086 | 19,460 | |
(+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 12,251 | 415 | 27,158 | 1,367 | 7,685 | 1,543 | |
(+) Investments & Other | 10,631 | 200 | 6,465 | 0 | 2,426 | 18 | |
(-) Debt | (3,747) | (191) | (66) | (1) | (919) | (1,219) | |
(-) Other Liabilities | 0 | (62) | (108) | 0 | 0 | (323) | |
(-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Value of Common Equity | 384,317 | 7,041 | 110,904 | 21,219 | 62,278 | 19,480 | |
(/) Shares Outstanding | 11,246.5 | 473.2 | 1,506.4 | 599.4 | 1,246.8 | 329.2 | |
Implied Stock Price | 34.17 | 14.88 | 73.62 | 35.40 | 49.95 | 59.17 | |
FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 0.94 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 36.25 | 14.88 | 73.62 | 35.40 | 49.95 | 59.17 | |
Trading Currency | HKD | CNY | CNY | CNY | CNY | CNY | |
FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 0.94 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |