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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 7,8x - 8,6x | 8,2x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 5,4x - 5,9x | 5,6x |
| Fair Value | ¥13,68 - ¥15,33 | ¥14,51 |
| Upside | -20,5% - -11,0% | -15,8% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Heilongjiang Transport Development Co., Ltd. | 601188 | SHSE:601188 |
| Xiamen Port Development Co., Ltd. | 905 | SZSE:000905 |
| Jiangsu Lianyungang Port Co., Ltd. | 601008 | SHSE:601008 |
| Jilin Expressway Co., Ltd. | 601518 | SHSE:601518 |
| Henan Zhongyuan Expressway Company Limited | 600020 | SHSE:600020 |
| Anhui Expressway Company Limited | 600012 | SHSE:600012 |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| 601188 | 905 | 601008 | 601518 | 600020 | 600012 | ||
| SHSE:601188 | SZSE:000905 | SHSE:601008 | SHSE:601518 | SHSE:600020 | SHSE:600012 | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | -13.6% | 7.5% | 14.3% | 10.2% | -6.5% | 7.7% | |
| 3Y CAGR | -2.1% | 8.2% | 16.2% | 37.1% | -2.5% | 14.6% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 3.4% | 22.3% | 1.0% | 10.6% | 2.8% | -5.9% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 44.9% | 3.2% | 27.0% | 64.3% | 54.1% | 65.9% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 37.8% | 2.8% | 29.7% | 60.4% | 56.1% | 57.6% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 30.0% | 3.5% | 28.7% | 72.8% | 47.2% | 50.2% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 30.0% | 3.5% | 28.7% | 77.6% | 47.2% | 41.8% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 1.98x | 0.32x | 2.10x | 3.16x | 5.40x | 3.83x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 6.6x | 9.0x | 7.3x | 4.1x | 11.4x | 9.2x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 15.2x | 15.6x | 13.2x | 5.8x | 17.9x | 13.0x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 4.1x | 7.3x | 11.4x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 2.7x | 4.6x | 5.6x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 7.8x | 8.2x | 8.6x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 3,062 | 3,062 | 3,062 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 23,935 | 25,195 | 26,455 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (2,855) | (2,855) | (2,855) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 21,081 | 22,340 | 23,600 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 1,472.6 | 1,472.6 | 1,472.6 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 14.31 | 15.17 | 16.03 | ||||
| FX Rate: CNY/CNY | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 14.31 | 15.17 | 16.03 | 17.22 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -16.9% | -11.9% | -6.9% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 601188 | 905 | 601008 | 601518 | 600020 | 600012 | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,650 | 7,030 | 5,515 | 4,298 | 37,669 | 28,214 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 1,273 | 1,253 | 2,685 | 1,806 | 497 | 4,330 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 1,662 | 352 | 1,516 | 0 | 5,411 | 853 | |
| (-) Debt | (15) | (1,586) | (3,411) | (450) | (33,689) | (6,515) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (287) | (1,440) | (1,553) | (418) | (0) | (1,523) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 4,282 | 5,608 | 4,752 | 5,237 | 9,888 | 25,359 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 1,305.5 | 741.8 | 1,240.6 | 1,890.6 | 2,247.4 | 1,472.6 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 3.28 | 7.56 | 3.83 | 2.77 | 4.40 | 17.22 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 3.28 | 7.56 | 3.83 | 2.77 | 4.40 | 17.22 | |
| Trading Currency | CNY | CNY | CNY | CNY | CNY | CNY | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |