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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 3,5x - 3,9x | 3,7x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 3,9x - 4,3x | 4,1x |
| Fair Value | S$0,38 - S$0,48 | S$0,43 |
| Upside | 21,3% - 55,5% | 38,4% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| PT Sampoerna Agro Tbk | SGRO | IDX:SGRO |
| PT Astra Agro Lestari Tbk | AALI | IDX:AALI |
| PT Sawit Sumbermas Sarana Tbk. | SSMS | IDX:SSMS |
| Vinh Hoan Corporation | VHC | HOSE:VHC |
| PT Ultrajaya Milk Industry & Trading Company Tbk | ULTJ | IDX:ULTJ |
| Indofood Agri Resources Ltd. | 5JS | SGX:5JS |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| SGRO | AALI | SSMS | VHC | ULTJ | 5JS | ||
| IDX:SGRO | IDX:AALI | IDX:SSMS | HOSE:VHC | IDX:ULTJ | SGX:5JS | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 19.5% | 4.1% | 29.4% | 5.5% | 1.6% | 20.1% | |
| 3Y CAGR | -0.5% | -9.5% | 1.9% | 4.5% | -4.1% | 4.3% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 42.8% | 6.8% | 37.9% | 42.4% | -6.5% | 47.9% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 30.4% | 16.1% | 29.0% | 15.0% | 21.7% | 23.2% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 24.8% | 14.5% | 14.6% | 13.7% | 19.8% | 22.2% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 30.7% | 14.7% | 21.2% | 13.5% | 17.7% | 32.9% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 33.0% | 13.7% | 20.1% | 14.5% | 16.9% | 32.9% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 1.13x | 0.40x | 1.62x | 0.94x | 1.31x | 1.11x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 3.4x | 2.9x | 8.0x | 6.5x | 7.7x | 3.4x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 4.7x | 5.1x | 9.7x | 8.8x | 8.5x | 4.7x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 2.9x | 6.5x | 8.0x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 3.4x | 4.9x | 7.2x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 3.5x | 3.7x | 3.9x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 5,256,529 | 5,256,529 | 5,256,529 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 18,437,413 | 19,407,803 | 20,378,193 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (11,219,094) | (11,219,094) | (11,219,094) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 7,218,319 | 8,188,709 | 9,159,099 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 1,395.9 | 1,395.9 | 1,395.9 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 5,171.07 | 5,866.24 | 6,561.41 | ||||
| FX Rate: IDR/SGD | 12,710.6 | 12,710.6 | 12,710.6 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 0.41 | 0.46 | 0.52 | 0.31 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | 31.2% | 48.9% | 66.5% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | SGRO | AALI | SSMS | VHC | ULTJ | 5JS | |
| Enterprise Value | 7,030,525 | 9,523,793 | 18,850,350 | 11,544,910 | 11,578,911 | 16,719,378 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 592,564 | 5,338,299 | 1,280,408 | 3,260,538 | 2,183,735 | 5,945,500 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 0 | 370,247 | 540,197 | 70,011 | 140,403 | 2,275,052 | |
| (-) Debt | (2,661,247) | (3,189,708) | (7,149,402) | (2,485,742) | (35,370) | (7,874,434) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (433,473) | (542,618) | (281,803) | (336,582) | (90,097) | (11,565,212) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 4,528,369 | 11,500,013 | 13,239,750 | 12,053,135 | 13,777,582 | 5,500,284 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 1,818.6 | 1,924.7 | 9,525.0 | 224.5 | 10,398.2 | 1,395.9 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 2,490.00 | 5,975.00 | 1,390.00 | 53,700.00 | 1,325.00 | 3,940.30 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 12,710.65 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 2,490.00 | 5,975.00 | 1,390.00 | 53,700.00 | 1,325.00 | 0.31 | |
| Trading Currency | IDR | IDR | IDR | VND | IDR | SGD | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 12,710.65 | |