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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 6,2x - 6,9x | 6,6x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 3,6x - 4,0x | 3,8x |
| Fair Value | HK$ 2,93 - HK$ 3,38 | HK$ 3,16 |
| Upside | 38,8% - 60,3% | 49,6% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Zhongsheng Group Holdings Limited | 881 | SEHK:881 |
| China MeiDong Auto Holdings Limited | 1268 | SEHK:1268 |
| China ZhengTong Auto Services Holdings Limited | 1728 | SEHK:1728 |
| Trans-China Automotive Holdings Limited | VI2 | Catalist:VI2 |
| Shanghai Aiyingshi Co.,Ltd | 603214 | SHSE:603214 |
| China Yongda Automobiles Services Holdings Limited | 3669 | SEHK:3669 |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| 881 | 1268 | 1728 | VI2 | 603214 | 3669 | ||
| SEHK:881 | SEHK:1268 | SEHK:1728 | Catalist:VI2 | SHSE:603214 | SEHK:3669 | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | -3.8% | -2.5% | -57.5% | NM- | -5.3% | -18.9% | |
| 3Y CAGR | -19.7% | -23.0% | NM- | NM- | 6.4% | -36.8% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -21.0% | -18.2% | -94.6% | -274.4% | -3.9% | -31.5% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 6.5% | 5.4% | -6.1% | 1.8% | 5.1% | 4.2% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 5.2% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 0.4% | 4.6% | 2.3% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 4.4% | 3.7% | 0.2% | -0.9% | 4.3% | 1.9% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 4.4% | 3.7% | 0.2% | -0.9% | 4.2% | 1.9% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.27x | 0.19x | 1.09x | 0.27x | 0.75x | 0.09x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 6.2x | 5.0x | 689.4x | -31.3x | 18.1x | 4.9x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 8.4x | 9.9x | -43.4x | -10.1x | 19.9x | 15.5x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | -31.3x | 6.2x | 689.4x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 3.5x | 4.7x | 9.2x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 6.2x | 6.6x | 6.9x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 1,180 | 1,180 | 1,180 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 7,357 | 7,745 | 8,132 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (2,334) | (2,334) | (2,334) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 5,023 | 5,411 | 5,798 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 1,854.9 | 1,854.9 | 1,854.9 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 2.71 | 2.92 | 3.13 | ||||
| FX Rate: CNY/HKD | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 2.97 | 3.19 | 3.42 | 2.11 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | 40.6% | 51.4% | 62.2% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 881 | 1268 | 1728 | VI2 | 603214 | 3669 | |
| Enterprise Value | 46,008 | 4,153 | 22,656 | 675 | 2,643 | 5,908 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 19,797 | 2,657 | 870 | 34 | 581 | 1,492 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 129 | 33 | 552 | 0 | 39 | 1,328 | |
| (-) Debt | (40,815) | (4,089) | (21,344) | (580) | (600) | (4,819) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (88) | (122) | (1,426) | 0 | (55) | (335) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 25,030 | 2,631 | 1,308 | 129 | 2,609 | 3,574 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 2,367.0 | 1,346.2 | 10,016.1 | 589.6 | 138.5 | 1,854.9 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 10.57 | 1.95 | 0.13 | 0.22 | 18.83 | 1.93 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 0.91 | 0.91 | 0.91 | 5.60 | 1.00 | 0.91 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 11.58 | 2.14 | 0.14 | 0.04 | 18.83 | 2.11 | |
| Trading Currency | HKD | HKD | HKD | SGD | CNY | HKD | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 0.91 | 0.91 | 0.91 | 5.60 | 1.00 | 0.91 | |