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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 9,1x - 10,1x | 9,6x |
| Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 9,9x - 11,0x | 10,5x |
| Fair Value | HK$ 14,78 - HK$ 20,05 | HK$ 17,42 |
| Upside | -9,5% - 22,7% | 6,6% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| China Overseas Grand Oceans Group Limited | 81 | SEHK:81 |
| Poly Property Group Co., Limited | 119 | SEHK:119 |
| China Resources Land Limited | 1109 | SEHK:1109 |
| China New Town Development Company Limited | 1278 | SEHK:1278 |
| Yuexiu Services Group Limited | 6626 | SEHK:6626 |
| C&D International Investment Group Limited | 1908 | SEHK:1908 |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| 81 | 119 | 1109 | 1278 | 6626 | 1908 | ||
| SEHK:81 | SEHK:119 | SEHK:1109 | SEHK:1278 | SEHK:6626 | SEHK:1908 | ||
| Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | -20.5% | -17.2% | 0.6% | -9.9% | 35.0% | 24.9% | |
| 3Y CAGR | -37.2% | -22.1% | 1.0% | 27.4% | 4.8% | 24.1% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -55.4% | -34.5% | -5.4% | -15.9% | 1.3% | 33.3% | |
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 15.6% | 18.8% | 22.0% | 20.4% | 21.4% | 9.2% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 9.6% | 13.0% | 19.6% | 54.1% | 18.4% | 5.7% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 5.3% | 8.7% | 16.7% | 45.5% | 15.5% | 7.1% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 5.3% | 8.7% | 16.7% | 45.5% | 15.5% | 7.1% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.52x | 1.21x | 1.41x | 1.65x | 0.47x | 0.68x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 9.5x | 13.3x | 8.3x | 3.6x | 2.9x | 9.5x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 9.8x | 13.9x | 8.5x | 3.6x | 3.0x | 9.6x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | 3.0x | 8.5x | 13.9x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBIT | 9.6x | 11.3x | 15.9x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 9.1x | 9.6x | 10.1x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBIT | 10,187 | 10,187 | 10,187 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 93,167 | 98,071 | 102,974 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (66,829) | (66,829) | (66,829) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 26,338 | 31,242 | 36,145 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 2,017.2 | 2,017.2 | 2,017.2 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 13.06 | 15.49 | 17.92 | ||||
| FX Rate: CNY/HKD | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 13.92 | 16.51 | 19.10 | 16.34 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -14.8% | 1.0% | 16.9% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 81 | 119 | 1109 | 1278 | 6626 | 1908 | |
| Enterprise Value | 23,853 | 48,590 | 394,507 | (1,424) | (461) | 97,750 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 27,291 | 34,508 | 137,029 | 2,976 | 2,472 | 62,461 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 931 | 6,253 | 90,617 | 1,980 | 2,267 | 25,634 | |
| (-) Debt | (40,143) | (71,742) | (320,977) | (2,301) | (119) | (89,979) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (6,155) | (12,338) | (124,232) | (492) | (85) | (64,945) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 5,777 | 5,270 | 176,944 | 739 | 4,073 | 30,921 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 3,559.4 | 3,821.2 | 7,130.9 | 9,726.2 | 1,502.2 | 2,017.2 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 1.62 | 1.38 | 24.81 | 0.08 | 2.71 | 15.33 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 0.94 | 0.94 | 0.94 | 0.94 | 0.94 | 0.94 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 1.73 | 1.47 | 26.45 | 0.08 | 2.89 | 16.34 | |
| Trading Currency | HKD | HKD | HKD | HKD | HKD | HKD | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 0.94 | 0.94 | 0.94 | 0.94 | 0.94 | 0.94 | |