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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 15,7x - 17,3x | 16,5x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 6,9x - 7,6x | 7,3x |
| Fair Value | HK$ 25,05 - HK$ 27,69 | HK$ 26,37 |
| Upside | -27,1% - -19,4% | -23,2% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation | 981 | SEHK:981 |
| Tower Semiconductor Ltd. | TSEM | NasdaqGS:TSEM |
| GlobalFoundries Inc. | GFS | NasdaqGS:GFS |
| Powerchip Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp. | 6770 | TWSE:6770 |
| Intel Corporation | 4335 | SEHK:4335 |
| Hua Hong Semiconductor Limited | 1347 | SEHK:1347 |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| 981 | TSEM | GFS | 6770 | 4335 | 1347 | ||
| SEHK:981 | NasdaqGS:TSEM | NasdaqGS:GFS | TWSE:6770 | SEHK:4335 | SEHK:1347 | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 37.7% | 8.4% | 14.7% | -14.5% | -25.7% | 11.2% | |
| 3Y CAGR | 11.6% | 1.1% | 14.6% | -62.8% | -39.4% | -11.2% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 27.0% | -1.7% | -14.1% | -52.8% | -30.8% | -39.9% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 42.2% | 30.3% | 29.4% | 23.7% | 32.2% | 27.6% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 43.2% | 32.3% | 35.0% | 6.3% | 20.0% | 28.0% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 43.2% | 31.4% | 32.9% | 2.9% | 14.2% | 19.2% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 43.2% | 31.4% | 32.9% | 2.9% | 14.2% | 19.2% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 8.10x | 2.12x | 2.57x | 2.13x | 2.34x | 4.28x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 18.8x | 6.8x | 7.8x | 72.6x | 16.5x | 22.3x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 227.4x | 16.5x | 23.9x | -12.6x | -32.4x | -55.1x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 6.8x | 16.5x | 72.6x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 4.0x | 18.9x | 56.6x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 15.7x | 16.5x | 17.3x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 385 | 385 | 385 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 6,043 | 6,361 | 6,679 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 8 | 8 | 8 | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 6,051 | 6,369 | 6,687 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 2,135.8 | 2,135.8 | 2,135.8 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 2.83 | 2.98 | 3.13 | ||||
| FX Rate: USD/HKD | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 21.98 | 23.13 | 24.29 | 34.35 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -36.0% | -32.7% | -29.3% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 981 | TSEM | GFS | 6770 | 4335 | 1347 | |
| Enterprise Value | 78,257 | 3,055 | 17,467 | 95,310 | 131,582 | 9,451 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 10,848 | 1,218 | 3,386 | 31,155 | 22,062 | 4,459 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 5,427 | 7 | 890 | 0 | 5,383 | 429 | |
| (-) Debt | (11,596) | (181) | (2,321) | (68,041) | (50,706) | (2,221) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (11,256) | 13 | (48) | 0 | (5,762) | (2,660) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 71,681 | 4,113 | 19,374 | 58,424 | 102,559 | 9,458 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 12,341.6 | 111.8 | 552.9 | 4,173.1 | 6,629.1 | 2,135.8 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 5.81 | 36.80 | 35.04 | 14.00 | 15.47 | 4.43 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 0.13 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.13 | 0.13 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 45.05 | 36.80 | 35.04 | 14.00 | 120.00 | 34.35 | |
| Trading Currency | HKD | USD | USD | TWD | HKD | HKD | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 0.13 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.13 | 0.13 | |