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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 9,1x - 10,1x | 9,6x |
Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 1,7x - 1,9x | 1,8x |
Fair Value | ﷼41,50 - ﷼49,02 | ﷼45,26 |
Upside | 3,0% - 21,6% | 12,3% |
Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
Knowledge Economic City Company | 4310 | SASE:4310 |
Emaar The Economic City | 4220 | SASE:4220 |
Dar Al Arkan Real Estate Development Company | 4300 | SASE:4300 |
Hawyia Auctions Company | 9641 | SASE:9641 |
Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction Company | 4325 | SASE:4325 |
Red Sea International Company | 4230 | SASE:4230 |
- | - | - |
Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
4310 | 4220 | 4300 | 9641 | 4325 | 4230 | ||
SASE:4310 | SASE:4220 | SASE:4300 | SASE:9641 | SASE:4325 | SASE:4230 | ||
Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
5Y CAGR | NM- | NM- | 14.4% | NM- | NM- | 49.2% | |
3Y CAGR | NM- | NM- | 23.6% | NM- | NM- | NM- | |
Latest Twelve Months | 68.1% | -100.7% | 45.1% | -33.7% | 71.5% | 90.4% | |
Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
5 Year Average Margin | -61.0% | -69.1% | 31.2% | 38.7% | 34.6% | -7.7% | |
Prior Fiscal Year | -60.5% | 39.4% | 33.6% | 46.1% | 39.4% | 6.6% | |
Latest Fiscal Year | -7.6% | -46.7% | 36.7% | 39.9% | 27.8% | 7.8% | |
Latest Twelve Months | -7.0% | -0.4% | 36.9% | 39.9% | 30.9% | 8.2% | |
Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
EV / LTM Revenue | 28.61x | 21.82x | 5.89x | 3.62x | 19.41x | 0.70x | |
EV / LTM EBITDA | -411.2x | -5223.2x | 16.0x | 9.1x | 62.9x | 8.6x | |
EV / LTM EBIT | -345.5x | -49.9x | 16.5x | 9.1x | 63.7x | 24.0x | |
Low | Mid | High | |||||
Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | -5223.2x | 9.1x | 62.9x | ||||
Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | -181.6x | -21.1x | 10.6x | ||||
Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 9.1x | 9.6x | 10.1x | ||||
(x) LTM EBITDA | 247 | 247 | 247 | ||||
(=) Implied Enterprise Value | 2,253 | 2,372 | 2,491 | ||||
(-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (904) | (904) | (904) | ||||
(=) Equity Value | 1,349 | 1,468 | 1,586 | ||||
(/) Shares Outstanding | 30.2 | 30.2 | 30.2 | ||||
Implied Value Range | 44.63 | 48.55 | 52.47 | ||||
FX Rate: SAR/SAR | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 44.63 | 48.55 | 52.47 | 40.30 | |||
Upside / (Downside) | 10.7% | 20.5% | 30.2% |
Equity Waterfall | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
(in millions) | 4310 | 4220 | 4300 | 9641 | 4325 | 4230 | |
Enterprise Value | 5,761 | 12,107 | 22,496 | 229 | 41,630 | 2,123 | |
(+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 129 | 181 | 6,499 | 21 | 856 | 50 | |
(+) Investments & Other | 136 | 2,642 | 2,821 | 0 | 0 | 4 | |
(-) Debt | (1,654) | (8,259) | (10,944) | 0 | (8,894) | (464) | |
(-) Other Liabilities | (93) | 0 | (6) | 0 | 0 | (494) | |
(-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Value of Common Equity | 4,279 | 6,672 | 20,866 | 250 | 33,592 | 1,218 | |
(/) Shares Outstanding | 339.3 | 523.3 | 1,080.0 | 20.0 | 1,438.6 | 30.2 | |
Implied Stock Price | 12.61 | 12.75 | 19.32 | 12.50 | 23.35 | 40.30 | |
FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 12.61 | 12.75 | 19.32 | 12.50 | 23.35 | 40.30 | |
Trading Currency | SAR | SAR | SAR | SAR | SAR | SAR | |
FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |