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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 7,4x - 8,2x | 7,8x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 6,3x - 7,0x | 6,6x |
| Fair Value | ₱32,34 - ₱39,27 | ₱35,81 |
| Upside | -15,8% - 2,3% | -6,8% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Veolia Environnement SA | VEOE.F | OTCPK:VEOE.F |
| American Water Works Company, Inc. | AWK | NYSE:AWK |
| Beijing Enterprises Water Group Limited | 371 | SEHK:371 |
| Jilin Province Chuncheng Heating Company Limited | 1853 | SEHK:1853 |
| Companhia de Saneamento Básico do Estado de São Paulo - SABESP | SBSP3 | BOVESPA:SBSP3 |
| Manila Water Company, Inc. | MWC | PSE:MWC |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| VEOE.F | AWK | 371 | 1853 | SBSP3 | MWC | ||
| OTCPK:VEOE.F | NYSE:AWK | SEHK:371 | SEHK:1853 | BOVESPA:SBSP3 | PSE:MWC | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 12.4% | 6.9% | -2.1% | 0.4% | 19.3% | 15.1% | |
| 3Y CAGR | 21.7% | 9.9% | 0.8% | -1.4% | 42.6% | 29.4% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -1.0% | 14.9% | -4.8% | -8.7% | 103.7% | 17.3% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 11.5% | 51.8% | 29.9% | 17.2% | 36.3% | 60.0% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 12.0% | 52.9% | 30.0% | 18.3% | 34.7% | 64.2% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 12.5% | 54.1% | 28.9% | 15.6% | 49.4% | 67.1% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 12.3% | 54.0% | 28.9% | 15.6% | 49.6% | 68.8% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.94x | 8.96x | 4.08x | -0.07x | 2.52x | 5.57x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 7.6x | 16.6x | 14.1x | -0.4x | 5.1x | 8.1x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 12.9x | 24.3x | 18.3x | -0.8x | 5.8x | 10.1x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | -0.4x | 7.6x | 16.6x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 5.9x | 7.0x | 10.7x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 7.4x | 7.8x | 8.2x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 26,286 | 26,286 | 26,286 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 195,290 | 205,568 | 215,846 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (99,230) | (99,230) | (99,230) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 96,059 | 106,338 | 116,616 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 2,957.9 | 2,957.9 | 2,957.9 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 32.48 | 35.95 | 39.43 | ||||
| FX Rate: PHP/PHP | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 32.48 | 35.95 | 39.43 | 38.40 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -15.4% | -6.4% | 2.7% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | VEOE.F | AWK | 371 | 1853 | SBSP3 | MWC | |
| Enterprise Value | 41,683 | 44,265 | 101,437 | (144) | 95,549 | 212,813 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 9,461 | 175 | 9,026 | 1,456 | 8,137 | 6,223 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 2,832 | 15 | 14,557 | 0 | 226 | 7,080 | |
| (-) Debt | (30,083) | (15,072) | (75,771) | (629) | (27,638) | (109,717) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (2,234) | 0 | (24,791) | 0 | 0 | (2,417) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (400) | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 21,659 | 29,383 | 24,458 | 683 | 76,273 | 113,582 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 731.4 | 202.1 | 10,046.6 | 466.7 | 683.5 | 2,957.9 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 29.61 | 145.36 | 2.43 | 1.46 | 111.59 | 38.40 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 0.86 | 1.00 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 34.48 | 145.36 | 2.66 | 1.60 | 111.59 | 38.40 | |
| Trading Currency | USD | USD | HKD | HKD | BRL | PHP | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 0.86 | 1.00 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |