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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 9,7x - 10,7x | 10,2x |
| Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 8,1x - 9,0x | 8,5x |
| Fair Value | ₱32,82 - ₱39,80 | ₱36,31 |
| Upside | -14,5% - 3,6% | -5,4% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Veolia Environnement SA | VEOE.F | OTCPK:VEOE.F |
| Vivant Corporation | VVT | PSE:VVT |
| American Water Works Company, Inc. | AWK | NYSE:AWK |
| Middlesex Water Company | MSEX | NasdaqGS:MSEX |
| Beijing Enterprises Water Group Limited | 371 | SEHK:371 |
| Manila Water Company, Inc. | MWC | PSE:MWC |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| VEOE.F | VVT | AWK | MSEX | 371 | MWC | ||
| OTCPK:VEOE.F | PSE:VVT | NYSE:AWK | NasdaqGS:MSEX | SEHK:371 | PSE:MWC | ||
| Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 16.0% | 1.7% | 7.3% | 11.2% | -5.9% | 16.3% | |
| 3Y CAGR | 30.0% | 10.5% | 11.1% | 18.2% | -4.3% | 36.2% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 6.8% | 52.6% | 14.0% | 33.6% | -7.3% | 17.7% | |
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 5.6% | 38.8% | 35.1% | 27.1% | 25.7% | 44.8% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 6.5% | 33.0% | 36.3% | 25.2% | 23.9% | 51.1% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 7.0% | 26.9% | 37.3% | 30.4% | 22.4% | 53.2% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 7.0% | 27.3% | 37.1% | 30.6% | 22.4% | 53.6% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.88x | 0.89x | 8.59x | 6.74x | 4.09x | 5.71x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 7.0x | 2.8x | 15.9x | 14.7x | 14.1x | 8.4x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 12.5x | 3.2x | 23.2x | 22.0x | 18.3x | 10.6x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | 3.2x | 18.3x | 23.2x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBIT | 7.9x | 8.6x | 16.2x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 9.7x | 10.2x | 10.7x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBIT | 19,968 | 19,968 | 19,968 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 193,872 | 204,076 | 214,280 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (98,998) | (98,998) | (98,998) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 94,874 | 105,078 | 115,282 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 2,957.9 | 2,957.9 | 2,957.9 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 32.08 | 35.52 | 38.97 | ||||
| FX Rate: PHP/PHP | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 32.08 | 35.52 | 38.97 | 38.40 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -16.5% | -7.5% | 1.5% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | VEOE.F | VVT | AWK | MSEX | 371 | MWC | |
| Enterprise Value | 38,926 | 11,221 | 41,340 | 1,318 | 101,688 | 212,581 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 11,764 | 6,256 | 189 | 3 | 9,026 | 6,921 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 3,006 | 10,608 | 30 | 0 | 14,557 | 7,203 | |
| (-) Debt | (29,282) | (7,395) | (14,509) | (396) | (75,771) | (110,883) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (2,391) | (1,531) | 0 | 0 | (24,791) | (2,239) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | (2) | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 22,023 | 19,159 | 27,050 | 923 | 24,708 | 113,582 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 730.4 | 1,023.5 | 195.0 | 17.9 | 10,046.6 | 2,957.9 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 30.15 | 18.72 | 138.71 | 51.52 | 2.46 | 38.40 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 0.86 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.91 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 34.92 | 18.72 | 138.71 | 51.52 | 2.69 | 38.40 | |
| Trading Currency | USD | PHP | USD | USD | HKD | PHP | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 0.86 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.91 | 1.00 | |