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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 10,6x - 11,7x | 11,2x |
Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 5,3x - 5,9x | 5,6x |
Fair Value | $0,45 - $0,48 | $0,47 |
Upside | -12,1% - -5,1% | -8,6% |
Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
CTS International Logistics Corporation Limited | 603128 | SHSE:603128 |
Bondex Supply Chain Management Co., Ltd. | 603836 | SHSE:603836 |
China Master Logistics Co., Ltd. | 603967 | SHSE:603967 |
Jiangsu Feiliks International Logistics Inc. | 300240 | SZSE:300240 |
FAR International Holdings Group Company Limited | 2516 | SEHK:2516 |
Sinotrans Limited | SNOT.F | OTCPK:SNOT.F |
- | - | - |
Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
603128 | 603836 | 603967 | 300240 | 2516 | SNOT.F | ||
SHSE:603128 | SHSE:603836 | SHSE:603967 | SZSE:300240 | SEHK:2516 | OTCPK:SNOT.F | ||
Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
5Y CAGR | 5.4% | 1.1% | 15.2% | -22.3% | NM- | 6.2% | |
3Y CAGR | -20.5% | -46.3% | 13.9% | -47.4% | 36.9% | -2.6% | |
Latest Twelve Months | -7.0% | 26.3% | 10.0% | 281.4% | 171.9% | -6.4% | |
Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
5 Year Average Margin | 4.7% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 1.0% | 2.9% | 2.4% | |
Prior Fiscal Year | 4.7% | 1.4% | 4.5% | -0.1% | 2.0% | 2.8% | |
Latest Fiscal Year | 3.4% | 1.3% | 3.4% | 0.3% | 3.8% | 2.3% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 3.0% | 1.0% | 3.4% | 0.4% | 3.8% | 2.3% | |
Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
EV / LTM Revenue | 0.41x | 0.21x | 0.34x | 0.60x | 0.23x | 0.27x | |
EV / LTM EBITDA | 12.3x | 18.0x | 8.1x | 40.8x | 5.7x | 7.2x | |
EV / LTM EBIT | 13.7x | 22.0x | 9.8x | 147.8x | 6.0x | 11.8x | |
Low | Mid | High | |||||
Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | 6.0x | 13.7x | 147.8x | ||||
Historical EV / LTM EBIT | 6.2x | 10.4x | 12.9x | ||||
Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 10.6x | 11.2x | 11.7x | ||||
(x) LTM EBIT | 2,401 | 2,401 | 2,401 | ||||
(=) Implied Enterprise Value | 25,513 | 26,856 | 28,199 | ||||
(-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 8,534 | 8,534 | 8,534 | ||||
(=) Equity Value | 34,047 | 35,390 | 36,733 | ||||
(/) Shares Outstanding | 11,126.9 | 11,126.9 | 11,126.9 | ||||
Implied Value Range | 3.06 | 3.18 | 3.30 | ||||
FX Rate: CNY/USD | 7.2 | 7.2 | 7.2 | Market Price | |||
Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 0.43 | 0.44 | 0.46 | 0.51 | |||
Upside / (Downside) | -16.4% | -13.1% | -9.8% |
Equity Waterfall | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
(in millions) | 603128 | 603836 | 603967 | 300240 | 2516 | SNOT.F | |
Enterprise Value | 7,258 | 2,180 | 3,878 | 3,915 | 679 | 32,207 | |
(+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 1,858 | 1,367 | 713 | 700 | 759 | 11,368 | |
(+) Investments & Other | 748 | 60 | 192 | 255 | 0 | 11,206 | |
(-) Debt | (1,458) | (747) | (520) | (1,443) | (867) | (11,497) | |
(-) Other Liabilities | (120) | (36) | (214) | (255) | 0 | (2,543) | |
(-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Value of Common Equity | 8,286 | 2,823 | 4,049 | 3,173 | 571 | 40,741 | |
(/) Shares Outstanding | 1,309.0 | 201.9 | 346.7 | 371.6 | 780.0 | 11,126.9 | |
Implied Stock Price | 6.33 | 13.98 | 11.68 | 8.54 | 0.73 | 3.66 | |
FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.91 | 7.18 | |
Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 6.33 | 13.98 | 11.68 | 8.54 | 0.80 | 0.51 | |
Trading Currency | CNY | CNY | CNY | CNY | HKD | USD | |
FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.91 | 7.18 |