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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 8,5x - 9,4x | 9,0x |
| Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 7,9x - 8,7x | 8,3x |
| Fair Value | $13,97 - $15,30 | $14,63 |
| Upside | -53,8% - -49,4% | -51,6% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Deutsche Lufthansa AG | 0H4A | LSE:0H4A |
| International Consolidated Airlines Group S.A. | IAG | LSE:IAG |
| Japan Airlines Co., Ltd. | 9201 | TSE:9201 |
| easyJet plc | EZJ | LSE:EZJ |
| Cathay Pacific Airways Limited | CPCA.F | OTCPK:CPCA.F |
| Ryanair Holdings plc | RYAO.F | OTCPK:RYAO.F |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| 0H4A | IAG | 9201 | EZJ | CPCA.F | RYAO.F | ||
| LSE:0H4A | LSE:IAG | TSE:9201 | LSE:EZJ | OTCPK:CPCA.F | OTCPK:RYAO.F | ||
| Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | -2.8% | 6.5% | 9.6% | 5.1% | 31.7% | 6.7% | |
| 3Y CAGR | NM- | NM- | NM- | NM- | NM- | NM- | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 33.3% | 37.0% | 48.3% | 12.3% | 7.5% | 22.8% | |
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | -7.0% | -14.3% | -15.9% | -21.3% | 2.1% | -0.6% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 6.0% | 12.3% | 9.1% | 5.6% | 13.7% | 15.3% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 3.4% | 14.1% | 8.6% | 6.4% | 12.6% | 11.2% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 3.8% | 15.2% | 10.0% | 5.9% | 12.1% | 14.4% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.36x | 0.76x | 0.62x | 0.36x | 0.98x | 1.75x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 4.0x | 4.1x | 3.4x | 4.0x | 5.1x | 7.8x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 9.4x | 5.0x | 6.1x | 6.1x | 8.1x | 12.2x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | 5.0x | 6.1x | 9.4x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBIT | -35.3x | 11.0x | 12.0x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 8.5x | 9.0x | 9.4x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBIT | 2,106 | 2,106 | 2,106 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 17,941 | 18,885 | 19,829 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 2,025 | 2,025 | 2,025 | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 19,965 | 20,910 | 21,854 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 1,780.9 | 1,780.9 | 1,780.9 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 11.21 | 11.74 | 12.27 | ||||
| FX Rate: EUR/USD | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 13.05 | 13.67 | 14.29 | 30.26 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -56.9% | -54.8% | -52.8% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 0H4A | IAG | 9201 | EZJ | CPCA.F | RYAO.F | |
| Enterprise Value | 13,825 | 25,217 | 1,181,111 | 3,441 | 116,181 | 44,263 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 8,590 | 9,348 | 953,149 | 3,622 | 8,912 | 4,348 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 1,235 | 284 | 175,290 | 43 | 16,497 | 0 | |
| (-) Debt | (14,021) | (14,807) | (891,381) | (3,295) | (65,254) | (2,324) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (50) | (6) | (41,268) | 0 | (7) | 0 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 9,579 | 20,036 | 1,376,901 | 3,811 | 76,329 | 46,287 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 1,198.3 | 4,641.3 | 436.6 | 750.9 | 6,439.4 | 1,780.9 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 7.99 | 4.32 | 3,154.00 | 5.08 | 11.85 | 25.99 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.16 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 7.85 | 0.86 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 7.99 | 3.74 | 3,154.00 | 5.08 | 1.51 | 30.26 | |
| Trading Currency | EUR | GBP | JPY | GBP | USD | USD | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.16 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 7.85 | 0.86 | |