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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 2,4x - 2,7x | 2,6x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 4,3x - 4,7x | 4,5x |
| Fair Value | $6,72 - $7,42 | $7,07 |
| Upside | 19,9% - 32,3% | 26,1% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Anglo American plc | NGLB | DB:NGLB |
| South32 Limited | 32Z | DB:32Z |
| Barrick Mining Corporation | ABX | BRSE:ABX |
| China Hongqiao Group Limited | H0Q | DB:H0Q |
| UACJ Corporation | F4M | DB:F4M |
| Norsk Hydro ASA | NHYK.F | OTCPK:NHYK.F |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| NGLB | 32Z | ABX | H0Q | F4M | NHYK.F | ||
| DB:NGLB | DB:32Z | BRSE:ABX | DB:H0Q | DB:F4M | OTCPK:NHYK.F | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | -2.8% | -18.4% | 6.2% | 16.8% | 8.1% | 14.5% | |
| 3Y CAGR | -27.0% | -25.1% | -1.5% | 11.5% | 14.8% | 7.8% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -11.5% | 224.6% | 21.2% | 92.5% | 52.4% | 20.2% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 35.8% | 23.8% | 49.1% | 21.5% | 8.3% | 25.8% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 28.2% | 13.8% | 46.1% | 16.5% | 5.7% | 24.9% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 28.1% | 11.0% | 47.6% | 27.2% | 7.5% | 25.7% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 28.1% | 16.6% | 49.1% | 27.2% | 9.7% | 26.9% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 1.88x | 1.20x | 2.88x | 0.83x | 0.56x | 0.51x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 6.7x | 7.3x | 5.9x | 3.0x | 5.7x | 1.9x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 10.3x | 13.7x | 7.4x | 3.6x | 9.3x | 2.3x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 3.0x | 5.9x | 7.3x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 2.1x | 2.9x | 3.9x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 2.4x | 2.6x | 2.7x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 57,427 | 57,427 | 57,427 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 140,482 | 147,876 | 155,269 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 1,600 | 1,600 | 1,600 | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 142,082 | 149,476 | 156,869 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 1,974.9 | 1,974.9 | 1,974.9 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 71.95 | 75.69 | 79.43 | ||||
| FX Rate: NOK/USD | 10.4 | 10.4 | 10.4 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 6.95 | 7.31 | 7.67 | 5.61 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | 23.8% | 30.3% | 36.7% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | NGLB | 32Z | ABX | H0Q | F4M | NHYK.F | |
| Enterprise Value | 50,784 | 7,339 | 39,996 | 128,817 | 536,251 | 113,149 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 8,203 | 1,600 | 4,104 | 44,770 | 36,553 | 21,888 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 987 | 662 | 4,141 | 27,950 | 40,145 | 23,691 | |
| (-) Debt | (18,842) | (1,647) | (4,727) | (71,843) | (366,162) | (37,171) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (7,773) | (13) | (9,114) | (10,814) | (29,205) | (6,808) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 33,359 | 7,941 | 34,400 | 118,881 | 217,582 | 114,749 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 1,213.4 | 4,493.3 | 1,378.4 | 9,297.4 | 45.3 | 1,974.9 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 27.49 | 1.77 | 24.96 | 12.79 | 4,807.53 | 58.10 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.13 | 1.13 | 1.20 | 8.14 | 163.52 | 10.36 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 24.43 | 1.57 | 20.74 | 1.57 | 29.40 | 5.61 | |
| Trading Currency | EUR | EUR | CHF | EUR | EUR | USD | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.13 | 1.13 | 1.20 | 8.14 | 163.52 | 10.36 | |