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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM Revenue Multiple | 1,1x - 1,3x | 1,2x |
| Selected Fwd Revenue Multiple | 1,0x - 1,1x | 1,0x |
| Fair Value | $0,32 - $0,53 | $0,42 |
| Upside | -25,2% - 25,4% | 0,1% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
|---|---|---|
| Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Limited | 1812 | SEHK:1812 |
| Clearwater Paper Corporation | CLW | NYSE:CLW |
| Lee & Man Paper Manufacturing Limited | 2314 | SEHK:2314 |
| Yibin Paper Industry Co., Ltd. | 600793 | SHSE:600793 |
| China Health Technology Group Holding Company Limited | 1069 | SEHK:1069 |
| Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited | NDGP.F | OTCPK:NDGP.F |
| Select LTM Revenue Multiple | ||||||||
| Benchmark Companies | ||||||||
| 1812 | CLW | 2314 | 600793 | 1069 | NDGP.F | |||
| SEHK:1812 | NYSE:CLW | SEHK:2314 | SHSE:600793 | SEHK:1069 | OTCPK:NDGP.F | |||
| Historical Revenue Growth | ||||||||
| 5Y CAGR | -1.6% | -4.7% | -0.9% | 5.3% | -0.1% | 1.7% | ||
| 3Y CAGR | -4.7% | -7.9% | -7.2% | -3.6% | NM- | -1.1% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | 1.3% | 21.8% | 4.2% | -15.1% | 9.1% | 11.0% | ||
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | ||||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 9.4% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 0.5% | -98.7% | 6.5% | ||
| Prior Fiscal Year | 7.2% | 7.1% | 3.1% | 3.4% | -14.3% | -3.1% | ||
| Latest Fiscal Year | -0.3% | -2.8% | 4.5% | -2.7% | -44.1% | 4.6% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | 1.0% | -2.8% | 4.5% | -6.9% | -37.7% | 5.0% | ||
| Current Trading Multiples | ||||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 1.21x | 0.47x | 1.16x | 2.82x | 2.67x | 1.17x | ||
| EV / LTM EBIT | 118.3x | -16.7x | 25.9x | -41.1x | -7.1x | 23.5x | ||
| Price / LTM Sales | 0.14x | 0.30x | 0.37x | 1.91x | 0.79x | 0.23x | ||
| Low | Mid | High | ||||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM Revenue | 0.47x | 1.21x | 2.82x | |||||
| Historical EV / LTM Revenue | 0.85x | 1.01x | 1.23x | |||||
| Selected EV / LTM Revenue | 1.15x | 1.21x | 1.27x | |||||
| (x) LTM Revenue | 62,350 | 62,350 | 62,350 | |||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 71,632 | 75,402 | 79,172 | |||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (58,584) | (58,584) | (58,584) | |||||
| (=) Equity Value | 13,048 | 16,818 | 20,588 | |||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 4,692.2 | 4,692.2 | 4,692.2 | |||||
| Implied Value Range | 2.78 | 3.58 | 4.39 | |||||
| FX Rate: CNY/USD | 7.3 | 7.3 | 7.3 | Market Price | ||||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 0.38 | 0.49 | 0.60 | 0.42 | ||||
| Upside / (Downside) | -9.6% | 16.6% | 42.7% | |||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 1812 | CLW | 2314 | 600793 | 1069 | NDGP.F | |
| Enterprise Value | 31,487 | 652 | 29,700 | 4,135 | 159 | 73,013 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 10,096 | 80 | 1,521 | 93 | 3 | 11,861 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 5,444 | 0 | 201 | 40 | 0 | 183 | |
| (-) Debt | (40,239) | (322) | (22,050) | (1,464) | (115) | (70,135) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (3,965) | 0 | (9) | 0 | 0 | (492) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 2,823 | 410 | 9,363 | 2,804 | 46 | 14,430 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 4,657.5 | 16.2 | 4,295.0 | 176.9 | 859.2 | 4,692.2 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 0.61 | 25.33 | 2.18 | 15.85 | 0.05 | 3.08 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 0.93 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.93 | 7.25 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 0.65 | 25.33 | 2.18 | 15.85 | 0.06 | 0.42 | |
| Trading Currency | HKD | USD | HKD | CNY | HKD | USD | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 0.93 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.93 | 7.25 | |