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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 12,5x - 13,9x | 13,2x |
| Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 11,5x - 12,7x | 12,1x |
| Fair Value | $12,34 - $13,89 | $13,12 |
| Upside | 16,5% - 31,1% | 23,8% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Transport International Holdings Limited | 62 | SEHK:62 |
| Mobico Group Plc | MCG | LSE:MCG |
| Kwoon Chung Bus Holdings Limited | 306 | SEHK:306 |
| AMS Public Transport Holdings Limited | 77 | SEHK:77 |
| National United Resources Holdings Limited | 254 | SEHK:254 |
| MTR Corporation Limited | MTCP.Y | OTCPK:MTCP.Y |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| 62 | MCG | 306 | 77 | 254 | MTCP.Y | ||
| SEHK:62 | LSE:MCG | SEHK:306 | SEHK:77 | SEHK:254 | OTCPK:MTCP.Y | ||
| Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | NM- | -8.3% | -22.5% | 0.8% | -14.5% | 9.6% | |
| 3Y CAGR | NM- | 61.2% | NM- | NM- | NM- | 15.6% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 97.2% | 24.6% | 234.6% | 5.4% | NM | 127.9% | |
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | -4.0% | 1.6% | -10.5% | 3.3% | -10.0% | 23.4% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 2.0% | 3.7% | -14.5% | 5.7% | -75.4% | 16.1% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 3.8% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 9.0% | 5.5% | 34.9% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 3.8% | 4.2% | 1.9% | 9.4% | 20.8% | 34.9% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.56x | 0.41x | 0.87x | 0.72x | 2.72x | 3.58x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 3.0x | 4.1x | 7.3x | 6.5x | 6.4x | 8.0x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 14.6x | 9.7x | 45.8x | 7.7x | 13.1x | 10.3x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | 7.7x | 13.1x | 45.8x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBIT | 10.3x | 25.4x | 31.8x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 12.5x | 13.2x | 13.9x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBIT | 20,920 | 20,920 | 20,920 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 262,239 | 276,042 | 289,844 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (41,249) | (41,249) | (41,249) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 220,990 | 234,793 | 248,595 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 2,219.3 | 2,219.3 | 2,219.3 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 99.58 | 105.80 | 112.01 | ||||
| FX Rate: HKD/USD | 7.8 | 7.8 | 7.8 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 12.76 | 13.55 | 14.35 | 10.60 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | 20.3% | 27.8% | 35.4% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 62 | MCG | 306 | 77 | 254 | MTCP.Y | |
| Enterprise Value | 4,582 | 1,413 | 2,005 | 290 | 329 | 224,902 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 1,691 | 245 | 445 | 59 | 153 | 22,229 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 2,637 | 32 | 103 | 0 | 0 | 14,845 | |
| (-) Debt | (4,218) | (1,478) | (1,757) | (234) | (228) | (77,815) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | 0 | (36) | (85) | 0 | 40 | (508) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 4,692 | 175 | 710 | 116 | 294 | 183,653 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 508.9 | 610.3 | 476.8 | 271.9 | 4,387.6 | 2,219.3 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 9.22 | 0.29 | 1.49 | 0.43 | 0.07 | 82.75 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 7.81 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 9.22 | 0.29 | 1.49 | 0.43 | 0.07 | 10.60 | |
| Trading Currency | HKD | GBP | HKD | HKD | HKD | USD | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 7.81 | |