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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 8,6x - 9,5x | 9,1x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 7,9x - 8,7x | 8,3x |
| Fair Value | $13,07 - $14,99 | $14,03 |
| Upside | 1,7% - 16,7% | 9,2% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Suntory Beverage & Food Limited | 2587 | TSE:2587 |
| Asahi Group Holdings, Ltd. | 2502 | TSE:2502 |
| Sapporo Holdings Limited | 2501 | TSE:2501 |
| Beijing Yanjing Brewery Co.,Ltd. | 729 | SZSE:000729 |
| Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. | KDP | NasdaqGS:KDP |
| Kirin Holdings Company, Limited | KNBW.F | OTCPK:KNBW.F |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| 2587 | 2502 | 2501 | 729 | KDP | KNBW.F | ||
| TSE:2587 | TSE:2502 | TSE:2501 | SZSE:000729 | NasdaqGS:KDP | OTCPK:KNBW.F | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 5.6% | 6.1% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 6.5% | 4.8% | |
| 3Y CAGR | 8.2% | 9.1% | 17.3% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 7.9% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 13.1% | 4.9% | 23.8% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.4% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 13.8% | 14.3% | 7.0% | 9.6% | 28.0% | 12.6% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 12.8% | 14.4% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 26.6% | 12.7% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 13.5% | 14.2% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 26.9% | 12.2% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 13.5% | 14.2% | 8.5% | 11.2% | 26.9% | 12.2% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.91x | 1.32x | 0.96x | 1.88x | 4.04x | 1.03x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 6.7x | 9.2x | 11.3x | 16.7x | 15.0x | 8.4x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 9.0x | 14.8x | 22.7x | 27.8x | 18.3x | 12.6x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 6.7x | 11.3x | 16.7x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 6.4x | 8.4x | 9.6x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 8.6x | 9.1x | 9.5x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 286,156 | 286,156 | 286,156 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 2,464,421 | 2,594,127 | 2,723,834 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (723,007) | (723,007) | (723,007) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 1,741,414 | 1,871,120 | 2,000,827 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 947.7 | 947.7 | 947.7 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 1,837.58 | 1,974.45 | 2,111.31 | ||||
| FX Rate: JPY/USD | 146.8 | 146.8 | 146.8 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 12.51 | 13.45 | 14.38 | 12.85 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -2.6% | 4.6% | 11.9% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 2587 | 2502 | 2501 | 729 | KDP | KNBW.F | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,523,381 | 3,866,726 | 511,326 | 27,477 | 62,060 | 2,511,218 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 165,051 | 83,961 | 24,140 | 10,878 | 510 | 118,617 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 14,775 | 214,703 | 281,839 | 576 | 1,632 | 368,135 | |
| (-) Debt | (85,271) | (1,279,174) | (236,584) | (1,793) | (18,330) | (857,570) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (105,690) | (5,250) | (1,127) | (1,061) | 0 | (352,189) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 1,512,246 | 2,880,966 | 579,594 | 36,077 | 45,872 | 1,788,211 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 309.0 | 1,502.9 | 77.9 | 2,818.5 | 1,356.8 | 947.7 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 4,894.00 | 1,917.00 | 7,438.00 | 12.80 | 33.81 | 1,886.96 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 146.85 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 4,894.00 | 1,917.00 | 7,438.00 | 12.80 | 33.81 | 12.85 | |
| Trading Currency | JPY | JPY | JPY | CNY | USD | USD | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 146.85 | |