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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 13,2x - 14,6x | 13,9x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 10,6x - 11,7x | 11,2x |
| Fair Value | $2,32 - $2,55 | $2,44 |
| Upside | 17,5% - 29,2% | 23,3% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Huangshan Tourism Development Co.,Ltd. | 600054 | SHSE:600054 |
| China Cyts Tours Holding Co., Ltd. | 600138 | SHSE:600138 |
| LiJiang YuLong Tourism Co., LTD. | 2033 | SZSE:002033 |
| Guangzhou Restaurant Group Company Limited | 603043 | SHSE:603043 |
| Tuniu Corporation | TOUR | NasdaqGM:TOUR |
| Haidilao International Holding Ltd. | HDAL.F | OTCPK:HDAL.F |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| 600054 | 600138 | 2033 | 603043 | TOUR | HDAL.F | ||
| SHSE:600054 | SHSE:600138 | SZSE:002033 | SHSE:603043 | NasdaqGM:TOUR | OTCPK:HDAL.F | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 2.5% | -8.4% | 2.5% | 7.8% | NM- | 12.3% | |
| 3Y CAGR | 95.7% | 52.4% | 80.0% | -0.5% | NM- | 25.3% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -5.2% | -7.2% | -9.1% | -15.5% | -38.6% | 2.0% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 17.2% | 3.5% | 34.6% | 16.2% | -71.2% | 14.5% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 39.5% | 8.9% | 48.3% | 15.8% | 14.8% | 18.7% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 34.8% | 7.7% | 46.7% | 13.4% | 15.8% | 18.5% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 34.6% | 7.7% | 44.5% | 12.7% | 10.9% | 18.5% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 2.59x | 1.20x | 5.17x | 1.67x | -0.68x | 1.64x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 7.5x | 15.6x | 11.6x | 13.1x | -6.2x | 8.9x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 9.5x | 23.3x | 15.8x | 16.6x | -7.3x | 11.5x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | -6.2x | 11.6x | 15.6x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 8.9x | 19.9x | 91.5x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 13.2x | 13.9x | 14.6x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 7,896 | 7,896 | 7,896 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 104,324 | 109,814 | 115,305 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 5,930 | 5,930 | 5,930 | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 110,254 | 115,745 | 121,235 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 6,666.7 | 6,666.7 | 6,666.7 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 16.54 | 17.36 | 18.19 | ||||
| FX Rate: CNY/USD | 7.2 | 7.2 | 7.2 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 2.30 | 2.42 | 2.53 | 1.98 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | 16.5% | 22.3% | 28.1% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 600054 | 600138 | 2033 | 603043 | TOUR | HDAL.F | |
| Enterprise Value | 5,290 | 12,142 | 4,043 | 8,618 | (715) | 88,692 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 1,669 | 1,510 | 775 | 1,431 | 1,044 | 9,580 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 686 | 2,391 | 35 | 111 | 349 | 2,502 | |
| (-) Debt | (326) | (6,860) | (9) | (1,018) | (5) | (6,168) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (199) | (2,176) | (140) | (263) | 72 | 16 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 7,120 | 7,007 | 4,704 | 8,879 | 746 | 94,623 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 619.7 | 723.8 | 549.5 | 568.8 | 116.0 | 6,666.7 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 11.49 | 9.68 | 8.56 | 15.61 | 6.43 | 14.19 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 7.18 | 7.18 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 11.49 | 9.68 | 8.56 | 15.61 | 0.90 | 1.98 | |
| Trading Currency | CNY | CNY | CNY | CNY | USD | USD | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 7.18 | 7.18 | |