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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 12,7x - 14,1x | 13,4x |
| Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 20,8x - 23,0x | 21,9x |
| Fair Value | $0,27 - $0,30 | $0,28 |
| Upside | -4,7% - 5,2% | 0,2% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Daqin Railway Co., Ltd. | 601006 | SHSE:601006 |
| China Railway Special Cargo Logistics Co., Ltd. | 1213 | SZSE:001213 |
| Sichuan Fulin Transportation Group Co., Ltd. | 2357 | SZSE:002357 |
| Hubei Three Gorges Tourism Group Co., Ltd. | 2627 | SZSE:002627 |
| Deewin Tianxia Co., Ltd | 2418 | SEHK:2418 |
| Guangshen Railway Company Limited | GNGY.F | OTCPK:GNGY.F |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| 601006 | 1213 | 2357 | 2627 | 2418 | GNGY.F | ||
| SHSE:601006 | SZSE:001213 | SZSE:002357 | SZSE:002627 | SEHK:2418 | OTCPK:GNGY.F | ||
| Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | -3.4% | 6.8% | -24.8% | -12.2% | NM- | 5.5% | |
| 3Y CAGR | 5.7% | 12.0% | 9.1% | -10.6% | -16.1% | NM- | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -18.7% | 29.9% | -160.8% | 103.4% | -20.9% | 1348.5% | |
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 18.8% | 5.4% | 2.3% | 4.4% | 10.2% | -3.4% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 18.6% | 4.2% | -1.0% | -2.4% | 10.6% | -13.0% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 18.9% | 6.0% | 2.1% | 4.0% | 7.1% | 5.8% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 15.2% | 5.9% | -3.5% | 9.8% | 7.5% | 6.7% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 1.08x | 1.19x | 1.92x | 3.21x | 2.62x | 0.73x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 4.9x | 9.9x | 14.6x | 13.8x | 31.1x | 5.3x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 7.1x | 20.1x | -55.5x | 32.7x | 35.0x | 10.8x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | -55.5x | 20.1x | 35.0x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBIT | -17.6x | -6.7x | 136.9x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 12.7x | 13.4x | 14.1x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBIT | 1,812 | 1,812 | 1,812 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 23,077 | 24,292 | 25,506 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 271 | 271 | 271 | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 23,348 | 24,563 | 25,778 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 10,700.6 | 10,700.6 | 10,700.6 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 2.18 | 2.30 | 2.41 | ||||
| FX Rate: CNY/USD | 7.3 | 7.3 | 7.3 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 0.30 | 0.32 | 0.33 | 0.28 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | 6.1% | 11.6% | 17.1% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 601006 | 1213 | 2357 | 2627 | 2418 | GNGY.F | |
| Enterprise Value | 81,713 | 12,924 | 1,661 | 2,820 | 7,565 | 21,735 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 63,159 | 5,246 | 111 | 1,381 | 1,585 | 2,332 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 26,741 | 183 | 1,251 | 116 | 7 | 781 | |
| (-) Debt | (23,255) | (220) | (543) | (382) | (5,489) | (2,880) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (15,589) | 0 | (72) | (237) | 0 | 39 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 132,770 | 18,133 | 2,408 | 3,698 | 3,668 | 22,007 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 20,147.2 | 4,444.4 | 313.5 | 699.0 | 2,181.4 | 10,700.6 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 6.59 | 4.08 | 7.68 | 5.29 | 1.68 | 2.06 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.93 | 7.26 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 6.59 | 4.08 | 7.68 | 5.29 | 1.80 | 0.28 | |
| Trading Currency | CNY | CNY | CNY | CNY | HKD | USD | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.93 | 7.26 | |