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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM Revenue Multiple | 1,1x - 1,3x | 1,2x |
| Selected Fwd Revenue Multiple | 1,0x - 1,2x | 1,1x |
| Fair Value | $1,31 - $1,53 | $1,42 |
| Upside | 9,1% - 27,9% | 18,5% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
|---|---|---|
| Aegean Airlines S.A. | AEGN | ATSE:AEGN |
| Ryanair Holdings plc | RYAO.F | OTCPK:RYAO.F |
| Spring Airlines Co., Ltd. | 601021 | SHSE:601021 |
| International Consolidated Airlines Group S.A. | IAG | BME:IAG |
| easyJet plc | EJTT.F | OTCPK:EJTT.F |
| Cathay Pacific Airways Limited | CPCA.F | OTCPK:CPCA.F |
| Select LTM Revenue Multiple | ||||||||
| Benchmark Companies | ||||||||
| AEGN | RYAO.F | 601021 | IAG | EJTT.F | CPCA.F | |||
| ATSE:AEGN | OTCPK:RYAO.F | SHSE:601021 | BME:IAG | OTCPK:EJTT.F | OTCPK:CPCA.F | |||
| Historical Revenue Growth | ||||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 6.3% | 11.8% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 7.8% | -0.5% | ||
| 3Y CAGR | 37.9% | 101.8% | 24.2% | 56.0% | 85.5% | 31.8% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | 4.7% | 5.3% | 24.9% | 9.0% | 13.9% | 10.5% | ||
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | ||||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | -0.6% | -0.7% | 0.8% | -15.2% | -21.1% | 0.5% | ||
| Prior Fiscal Year | 14.3% | 13.4% | -35.3% | 12.3% | 5.6% | 13.8% | ||
| Latest Fiscal Year | 12.6% | 15.3% | 16.0% | 14.1% | 6.4% | 12.6% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | 12.6% | 12.4% | 14.4% | 14.1% | 6.4% | 12.6% | ||
| Current Trading Multiples | ||||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.89x | 1.38x | 2.96x | 0.65x | 0.33x | 1.02x | ||
| EV / LTM EBIT | 7.1x | 11.2x | 20.6x | 4.6x | 5.1x | 8.1x | ||
| Price / LTM Sales | 0.54x | 1.39x | 2.55x | 0.42x | 0.35x | 0.58x | ||
| Low | Mid | High | ||||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM Revenue | 0.33x | 0.89x | 2.96x | |||||
| Historical EV / LTM Revenue | 1.02x | 1.75x | 2.74x | |||||
| Selected EV / LTM Revenue | 1.14x | 1.20x | 1.26x | |||||
| (x) LTM Revenue | 104,371 | 104,371 | 104,371 | |||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 119,409 | 125,693 | 131,978 | |||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (46,667) | (46,667) | (46,667) | |||||
| (=) Equity Value | 72,742 | 79,026 | 85,311 | |||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 7,280.9 | 7,280.9 | 7,280.9 | |||||
| Implied Value Range | 9.99 | 10.85 | 11.72 | |||||
| FX Rate: HKD/USD | 7.8 | 7.8 | 7.8 | Market Price | ||||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 1.29 | 1.40 | 1.51 | 1.20 | ||||
| Upside / (Downside) | 7.1% | 16.3% | 25.6% | |||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | AEGN | RYAO.F | 601021 | IAG | EJTT.F | CPCA.F | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,607 | 14,949 | 58,732 | 20,759 | 3,660 | 114,596 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 739 | 2,751 | 9,612 | 9,799 | 3,461 | 5,444 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 67 | 0 | 959 | 234 | 51 | 16,371 | |
| (-) Debt | (1,431) | (2,700) | (18,743) | (17,345) | (3,315) | (68,475) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | 0 | 0 | 0 | (6) | 0 | (7) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 981 | 15,000 | 50,560 | 13,441 | 3,857 | 67,929 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 89.5 | 1,396.5 | 976.8 | 4,791.7 | 827.5 | 7,280.9 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 10.96 | 10.74 | 51.76 | 2.81 | 4.66 | 9.33 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 0.91 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.78 | 7.77 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 10.96 | 11.77 | 51.76 | 2.81 | 6.00 | 1.20 | |
| Trading Currency | EUR | USD | CNY | EUR | USD | USD | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 0.91 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.78 | 7.77 | |