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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 7,9x - 8,7x | 8,3x |
| Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 7,9x - 8,7x | 8,3x |
| Fair Value | $1,12 - $1,31 | $1,21 |
| Upside | -10,3% - 5,2% | -2,6% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Qantas Airways Limited | QAN | ASX:QAN |
| ANA Holdings Inc. | 9202 | TSE:9202 |
| InterGlobe Aviation Limited | 539448 | BSE:539448 |
| Japan Airlines Co., Ltd. | 9201 | TSE:9201 |
| Singapore Airlines Limited | C6L | SGX:C6L |
| Cathay Pacific Airways Limited | CPCA.F | OTCPK:CPCA.F |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| QAN | 9202 | 539448 | 9201 | C6L | CPCA.F | ||
| ASX:QAN | TSE:9202 | BSE:539448 | TSE:9201 | SGX:C6L | OTCPK:CPCA.F | ||
| Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 12.3% | 25.9% | 46.2% | 10.9% | 64.1% | 31.7% | |
| 3Y CAGR | NM- | NM- | NM- | NM- | NM- | NM- | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -9.3% | -7.3% | 3.0% | 12.7% | -36.8% | 1.5% | |
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | -2.6% | -9.4% | -2.3% | -16.6% | -4.7% | 0.5% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 13.8% | 10.1% | 15.5% | 9.1% | 14.5% | 13.7% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 10.0% | 8.5% | 13.6% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 12.6% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 9.9% | 8.5% | 13.6% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 12.6% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.88x | 0.57x | 2.86x | 0.66x | 1.02x | 1.02x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 5.3x | 3.8x | 11.8x | 3.8x | 5.6x | 5.1x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 8.9x | 6.7x | 21.0x | 7.3x | 11.4x | 8.1x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | 6.7x | 8.9x | 21.0x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBIT | -21.0x | 8.1x | 39.8x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 7.9x | 8.3x | 8.7x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBIT | 13,177 | 13,177 | 13,177 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 103,849 | 109,315 | 114,781 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (40,707) | (40,707) | (40,707) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 63,142 | 68,608 | 74,074 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 7,280.9 | 7,280.9 | 7,280.9 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 8.67 | 9.42 | 10.17 | ||||
| FX Rate: HKD/USD | 7.8 | 7.8 | 7.8 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 1.10 | 1.20 | 1.30 | 1.25 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -11.3% | -3.6% | 4.1% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | QAN | 9202 | 539448 | 9201 | C6L | CPCA.F | |
| Enterprise Value | 20,083 | 1,284,162 | 2,296,634 | 1,231,655 | 19,819 | 111,864 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 2,340 | 1,216,418 | 437,377 | 752,532 | 9,256 | 10,534 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 46 | 150,654 | 13,183 | 168,389 | 4,666 | 17,241 | |
| (-) Debt | (7,229) | (1,349,058) | (668,098) | (896,023) | (12,914) | (68,475) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (5) | (9,778) | 0 | (41,615) | (414) | (7) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 15,235 | 1,292,398 | 2,079,096 | 1,214,938 | 20,412 | 71,157 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 1,482.0 | 470.0 | 386.5 | 436.6 | 2,971.2 | 7,280.9 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 10.28 | 2,750.00 | 5,379.15 | 2,783.00 | 6.87 | 9.77 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 7.85 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 10.28 | 2,750.00 | 5,379.15 | 2,783.00 | 6.87 | 1.25 | |
| Trading Currency | AUD | JPY | INR | JPY | SGD | USD | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 7.85 | |