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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 7,1x - 7,9x | 7,5x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 4,5x - 5,0x | 4,8x |
| Fair Value | $18,73 - $21,06 | $19,90 |
| Upside | -11,4% - -0,4% | -5,9% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Anglo American plc | AAL | LSE:AAL |
| Rio Tinto Group | RIO | LSE:RIO |
| Hochschild Mining plc | HOC | LSE:HOC |
| Fortescue Ltd | FSUM.F | OTCPK:FSUM.F |
| Nickel Industries Limited | NIC | ASX:NIC |
| Antofagasta plc | ANFG.F | OTCPK:ANFG.F |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| AAL | RIO | HOC | FSUM.F | NIC | ANFG.F | ||
| LSE:AAL | LSE:RIO | LSE:HOC | OTCPK:FSUM.F | ASX:NIC | OTCPK:ANFG.F | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | -2.8% | 0.0% | 5.1% | 12.2% | 7.8% | 6.7% | |
| 3Y CAGR | -27.0% | -17.5% | 4.1% | -13.7% | 6.6% | -12.4% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -11.5% | -2.0% | 67.5% | -26.8% | -32.9% | 4.4% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 35.8% | 43.3% | 35.5% | 62.2% | 27.9% | 48.7% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 28.2% | 36.0% | 32.8% | 56.9% | 22.1% | 45.8% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 28.1% | 35.5% | 40.2% | 57.7% | 16.0% | 45.7% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 28.1% | 35.5% | 40.2% | 50.3% | 16.0% | 45.7% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 1.83x | 1.92x | 2.26x | 1.87x | 0.84x | 3.58x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 6.5x | 5.4x | 5.6x | 3.7x | 5.3x | 7.8x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 10.1x | 7.4x | 9.5x | 5.1x | 9.7x | 14.6x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 3.7x | 5.4x | 6.5x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 6.9x | 7.8x | 8.4x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 7.1x | 7.5x | 7.9x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 3,023 | 3,023 | 3,023 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 21,533 | 22,666 | 23,799 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (3,333) | (3,333) | (3,333) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 18,199 | 19,333 | 20,466 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 985.9 | 985.9 | 985.9 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 18.46 | 19.61 | 20.76 | ||||
| FX Rate: USD/USD | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 18.46 | 19.61 | 20.76 | 21.14 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -12.7% | -7.2% | -1.8% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | AAL | RIO | HOC | FSUM.F | NIC | ANFG.F | |
| Enterprise Value | 48,857 | 97,075 | 2,105 | 30,866 | 1,381 | 24,174 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 8,203 | 8,865 | 97 | 3,409 | 211 | 4,316 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 987 | 5,355 | 16 | 375 | 1,230 | 1,788 | |
| (-) Debt | (18,842) | (14,222) | (319) | (5,439) | (1,055) | (5,945) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (7,773) | (2,719) | (76) | 27 | (432) | (3,492) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 31,432 | 94,354 | 1,822 | 29,238 | 1,335 | 20,841 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 1,213.4 | 1,624.6 | 514.5 | 3,074.5 | 4,289.8 | 985.9 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 25.90 | 58.08 | 3.54 | 9.51 | 0.31 | 21.14 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.29 | 1.29 | 1.29 | 1.00 | 0.60 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 20.04 | 44.93 | 2.74 | 9.51 | 0.52 | 21.14 | |
| Trading Currency | GBP | GBP | GBP | USD | AUD | USD | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.29 | 1.29 | 1.29 | 1.00 | 0.60 | 1.00 | |