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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | -157,4x - -173,9x | -165,7x |
| Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 26,0x - 28,7x | 27,4x |
| Fair Value | $0,59 - $0,76 | $0,67 |
| Upside | -6,2% - 20,2% | 7,0% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Juneyao Airlines Co., Ltd | 603885 | SHSE:603885 |
| Spring Airlines Co., Ltd. | 601021 | SHSE:601021 |
| American Airlines Group Inc. | AAL_KZ | KAS:AAL_KZ |
| Norwegian Air Shuttle ASA | NAS | OB:NAS |
| United Airlines Holdings, Inc. | UAL | NasdaqGS:UAL |
| Air China Limited | AICA.F | OTCPK:AICA.F |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| 603885 | 601021 | AAL_KZ | NAS | UAL | AICA.F | ||
| SHSE:603885 | SHSE:601021 | KAS:AAL_KZ | OB:NAS | NasdaqGS:UAL | OTCPK:AICA.F | ||
| Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 9.6% | 5.6% | -2.8% | 20.9% | 3.1% | NM- | |
| 3Y CAGR | NM- | 202.7% | NM- | NM- | NM- | NM- | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -20.8% | -9.6% | -16.5% | -22.8% | 5.3% | -188.1% | |
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | -2.7% | 1.1% | -12.6% | -37.7% | -11.1% | -18.6% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 12.4% | 16.0% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 0.0% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 11.5% | 14.5% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 9.3% | -0.5% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 10.5% | 14.6% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 9.9% | -1.1% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 2.66x | 3.34x | 0.67x | 0.56x | 0.73x | 1.85x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 16.7x | 13.7x | 6.8x | 9.2x | 5.0x | 25.5x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 25.4x | 23.0x | 11.7x | 10.2x | 7.4x | -166.0x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | 7.4x | 11.7x | 25.4x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBIT | -345.3x | -28.5x | -9.5x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBIT | -157.4x | -165.7x | -173.9x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBIT | (1,852) | (1,852) | (1,852) | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 291,499 | 306,842 | 322,184 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (183,561) | (183,561) | (183,561) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 107,938 | 123,280 | 138,622 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 25,886.0 | 25,886.0 | 25,886.0 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 4.17 | 4.76 | 5.36 | ||||
| FX Rate: CNY/USD | 7.2 | 7.2 | 7.2 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 0.58 | 0.66 | 0.74 | 0.63 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -8.1% | 5.0% | 18.1% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 603885 | 601021 | AAL_KZ | NAS | UAL | AICA.F | |
| Enterprise Value | 58,775 | 67,352 | 36,491 | 20,031 | 42,303 | 300,973 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 1,903 | 10,861 | 8,017 | 10,456 | 15,330 | 23,453 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 4,344 | 839 | 0 | 0 | 1,239 | 21,004 | |
| (-) Debt | (34,621) | (21,856) | (36,600) | (15,536) | (32,925) | (232,707) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4,689 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 30,414 | 57,196 | 7,908 | 14,951 | 25,947 | 117,412 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 2,184.9 | 972.7 | 659.5 | 1,047.0 | 326.6 | 25,886.0 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 13.92 | 58.80 | 11.99 | 14.28 | 79.45 | 4.54 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 7.20 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 13.92 | 58.80 | 11.99 | 14.28 | 79.45 | 0.63 | |
| Trading Currency | CNY | CNY | USD | NOK | USD | USD | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 7.20 | |