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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 13,1x - 14,5x | 13,8x |
| Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 11,2x - 12,3x | 11,7x |
| Fair Value | $107,21 - $120,86 | $114,04 |
| Upside | 10,7% - 24,8% | 17,8% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| FedEx Corporation | FDX | NYSE:FDX |
| C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. | CHRW | NasdaqGS:CHRW |
| Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. | EXPD | NYSE:EXPD |
| GXO Logistics, Inc. | GXO | NYSE:GXO |
| Forward Air Corporation | FWRD | NasdaqGS:FWRD |
| United Parcel Service, Inc. | UPS | NYSE:UPS |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| FDX | CHRW | EXPD | GXO | FWRD | UPS | ||
| NYSE:FDX | NasdaqGS:CHRW | NYSE:EXPD | NYSE:GXO | NasdaqGS:FWRD | NYSE:UPS | ||
| Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 34.5% | -2.0% | 6.3% | 19.3% | -16.0% | 0.4% | |
| 3Y CAGR | -4.3% | -12.9% | -18.3% | 16.4% | -31.7% | -14.6% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -4.6% | 34.4% | 10.8% | 2.3% | -67.8% | -15.0% | |
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 7.1% | 4.2% | 10.4% | 3.5% | 9.0% | 11.4% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 7.1% | 3.0% | 10.1% | 4.0% | 10.6% | 10.4% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 7.9% | 4.0% | 9.8% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 8.8% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 7.6% | 4.0% | 9.8% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 8.8% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.93x | 0.69x | 1.34x | 0.76x | 1.05x | 1.11x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 7.4x | 16.1x | 12.9x | 10.9x | 13.8x | 8.7x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 12.2x | 17.2x | 13.6x | 22.2x | 55.2x | 12.7x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | 12.2x | 17.2x | 55.2x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBIT | 11.8x | 14.9x | 19.8x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 13.1x | 13.8x | 14.5x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBIT | 8,011 | 8,011 | 8,011 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 104,962 | 110,486 | 116,011 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (19,013) | (19,013) | (19,013) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 85,949 | 91,473 | 96,998 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 847.5 | 847.5 | 847.5 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 101.41 | 107.93 | 114.45 | ||||
| FX Rate: USD/USD | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 101.41 | 107.93 | 114.45 | 96.84 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | 4.7% | 11.5% | 18.2% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | FDX | CHRW | EXPD | GXO | FWRD | UPS | |
| Enterprise Value | 80,871 | 12,269 | 14,179 | 8,899 | 2,592 | 101,088 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 5,207 | 146 | 1,148 | 413 | 105 | 6,318 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 447 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 346 | |
| (-) Debt | (37,031) | (1,741) | (569) | (5,176) | (2,146) | (25,652) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | 0 | 0 | (3) | (32) | (84) | (25) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 49,494 | 10,674 | 14,755 | 4,107 | 467 | 82,075 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 239.6 | 118.2 | 137.8 | 119.5 | 30.4 | 847.5 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 206.57 | 90.28 | 107.11 | 34.36 | 15.35 | 96.84 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 206.57 | 90.28 | 107.11 | 34.36 | 15.35 | 96.84 | |
| Trading Currency | USD | USD | USD | USD | USD | USD | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |