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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 9,0x - 9,9x | 9,5x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 5,8x - 6,4x | 6,1x |
| Fair Value | $9,42 - $10,99 | $10,20 |
| Upside | -7,6% - 7,8% | 0,1% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Brown & Brown, Inc. | BRO | NYSE:BRO |
| Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. | MMC | NYSE:MMC |
| Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. | AJG | NYSE:AJG |
| Erie Indemnity Company | ERIE | NasdaqGS:ERIE |
| Ryan Specialty Holdings, Inc. | RYAN | NYSE:RYAN |
| Crawford & Company | CRD.B | NYSE:CRD.B |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| BRO | MMC | AJG | ERIE | RYAN | CRD.B | ||
| NYSE:BRO | NYSE:MMC | NYSE:AJG | NasdaqGS:ERIE | NYSE:RYAN | NYSE:CRD.B | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 17.9% | 15.0% | 26.2% | 15.3% | 31.9% | -3.3% | |
| 3Y CAGR | 16.5% | 9.5% | 24.0% | 29.7% | 22.9% | -0.3% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 16.3% | 8.4% | 20.5% | 23.7% | 31.7% | 8.9% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 32.6% | 27.9% | 27.8% | 16.0% | 25.6% | 6.9% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 32.5% | 28.9% | 31.1% | 18.4% | 24.6% | 6.8% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 33.9% | 29.5% | 33.2% | 20.2% | 27.2% | 5.7% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 34.3% | 29.6% | 33.1% | 19.9% | 27.2% | 6.1% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 8.05x | 5.11x | 6.95x | 4.20x | 4.91x | 0.61x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 23.5x | 17.2x | 21.0x | 21.0x | 18.0x | 10.0x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 27.2x | 19.3x | 27.0x | 22.8x | 25.4x | 12.6x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 17.2x | 21.0x | 23.5x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 7.1x | 8.4x | 13.5x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 9.0x | 9.5x | 9.9x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 79 | 79 | 79 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 714 | 752 | 789 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (272) | (272) | (272) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 441 | 479 | 517 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 49.5 | 49.5 | 49.5 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 8.93 | 9.69 | 10.45 | ||||
| FX Rate: USD/USD | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 8.93 | 9.69 | 10.45 | 10.19 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -12.4% | -4.9% | 2.5% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | BRO | MMC | AJG | ERIE | RYAN | CRD.B | |
| Enterprise Value | 39,101 | 127,454 | 78,135 | 16,380 | 12,654 | 776 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 669 | 1,604 | 16,692 | 288 | 213 | 57 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 0 | 471 | 0 | 1,146 | 72 | 0 | |
| (-) Debt | (4,038) | (22,419) | (13,423) | (13) | (3,867) | (331) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (20) | (203) | (34) | 0 | (515) | 2 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 35,712 | 106,907 | 81,371 | 17,802 | 8,559 | 504 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 325.9 | 492.7 | 256.1 | 52.3 | 126.6 | 49.5 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 109.58 | 216.97 | 317.73 | 340.45 | 67.58 | 10.19 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 109.58 | 216.97 | 317.73 | 340.45 | 67.58 | 10.19 | |
| Trading Currency | USD | USD | USD | USD | USD | USD | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |