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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 11,8x - 13,0x | 12,4x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 12,3x - 13,6x | 13,0x |
| Fair Value | $6,06 - $11,63 | $8,85 |
| Upside | -56,1% - -15,7% | -35,9% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Vistra Corp. | VST | NYSE:VST |
| TransAlta Corporation | TAC | NYSE:TAC |
| NextEra Energy, Inc. | NEE | NYSE:NEE |
| NiSource Inc. | NI | NYSE:NI |
| Edison International | EIX | NYSE:EIX |
| The AES Corporation | AES | NYSE:AES |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| VST | TAC | NEE | NI | EIX | AES | ||
| NYSE:VST | NYSE:TAC | NYSE:NEE | NYSE:NI | NYSE:EIX | NYSE:AES | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 11.9% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 10.5% | 0.6% | |
| 3Y CAGR | 129.2% | -0.1% | 21.6% | 11.2% | 7.5% | -3.3% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 89.5% | -38.1% | 0.8% | 18.4% | 4.6% | -7.8% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 22.2% | 41.9% | 49.3% | 37.1% | 34.8% | 30.2% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 31.4% | 51.0% | 57.7% | 38.0% | 36.5% | 26.7% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 39.3% | 40.8% | 53.0% | 43.8% | 36.3% | 26.7% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 37.4% | 36.2% | 54.9% | 43.5% | 37.0% | 26.1% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 4.69x | 3.82x | 8.94x | 6.16x | 3.60x | 3.57x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 12.5x | 10.6x | 16.3x | 14.2x | 9.7x | 13.6x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 22.0x | 26.6x | 29.4x | 22.5x | 16.2x | 22.9x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 9.7x | 12.5x | 16.3x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 9.7x | 12.3x | 12.4x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 11.8x | 12.4x | 13.0x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 3,167 | 3,167 | 3,167 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 37,343 | 39,308 | 41,273 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (33,391) | (33,391) | (33,391) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 3,952 | 5,917 | 7,882 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 711.9 | 711.9 | 711.9 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 5.55 | 8.31 | 11.07 | ||||
| FX Rate: USD/USD | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 5.55 | 8.31 | 11.07 | 13.80 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -59.8% | -39.8% | -19.8% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | VST | TAC | NEE | NI | EIX | AES | |
| Enterprise Value | 84,796 | 10,154 | 231,576 | 36,478 | 62,376 | 43,216 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 589 | 238 | 1,728 | 259 | 1,318 | 1,817 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 38 | 252 | 17,980 | 91 | 59 | 1,129 | |
| (-) Debt | (17,714) | (4,627) | (93,189) | (14,925) | (39,560) | (31,181) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (13) | (93) | (10,135) | (2,049) | (2,175) | (5,156) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | (2,476) | (942) | 0 | 0 | (1,645) | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 65,220 | 4,982 | 147,960 | 19,854 | 20,373 | 9,825 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 339.3 | 296.4 | 2,059.3 | 470.7 | 384.8 | 711.9 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 192.20 | 16.81 | 71.85 | 42.18 | 52.95 | 13.80 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.37 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 192.20 | 12.27 | 71.85 | 42.18 | 52.95 | 13.80 | |
| Trading Currency | USD | USD | USD | USD | USD | USD | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.37 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |