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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 12,0x - 13,3x | 12,7x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 11,1x - 12,2x | 11,7x |
| Fair Value | ₹48,98 - ₹56,03 | ₹52,51 |
| Upside | -6,3% - 7,2% | 0,5% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Total Transport Systems Limited | TOTAL | NSEI:TOTAL |
| Tiger Logistics (India) Limited | 536264 | BSE:536264 |
| VRL Logistics Limited | VRLLOG | NSEI:VRLLOG |
| Allcargo Logistics Limited | ALLCARGO | NSEI:ALLCARGO |
| ABC India Limited | 520123 | BSE:520123 |
| Snowman Logistics Limited | SNOWMAN | NSEI:SNOWMAN |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| TOTAL | 536264 | VRLLOG | ALLCARGO | 520123 | SNOWMAN | ||
| NSEI:TOTAL | BSE:536264 | NSEI:VRLLOG | NSEI:ALLCARGO | BSE:520123 | NSEI:SNOWMAN | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 13.3% | NM- | 11.7% | 4.3% | -11.3% | 12.0% | |
| 3Y CAGR | -9.2% | -6.0% | 8.9% | -23.9% | -5.8% | 15.3% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 84.7% | 80.0% | 98.7% | 117.5% | -19.8% | -7.9% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 1.9% | 2.9% | 11.8% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 19.6% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 1.5% | 6.2% | 9.4% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 17.0% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 2.0% | 5.8% | 13.5% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 16.2% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 2.0% | 5.9% | 15.2% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 16.6% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.21x | 0.87x | 1.91x | 0.30x | 0.14x | 2.06x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 10.6x | 14.8x | 12.6x | 9.3x | 6.2x | 12.4x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 15.1x | 15.2x | 15.8x | 54.0x | 9.1x | 43.3x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 6.2x | 10.6x | 14.8x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 10.8x | 14.1x | 18.9x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 12.0x | 12.7x | 13.3x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 956 | 956 | 956 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 11,513 | 12,119 | 12,725 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (3,005) | (3,005) | (3,005) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 8,508 | 9,114 | 9,720 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 167.1 | 167.1 | 167.1 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 50.92 | 54.54 | 58.17 | ||||
| FX Rate: INR/INR | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 50.92 | 54.54 | 58.17 | 52.27 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -2.6% | 4.4% | 11.3% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | TOTAL | 536264 | VRLLOG | ALLCARGO | 520123 | SNOWMAN | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,364 | 4,629 | 60,486 | 48,209 | 269 | 11,739 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 177 | 512 | 531 | 6,940 | 179 | 62 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 60 | 0 | 0 | 1,623 | 195 | 0 | |
| (-) Debt | (388) | (341) | (12,258) | (20,363) | (199) | (3,067) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | 0 | 0 | 0 | (2,178) | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 1,213 | 4,799 | 48,759 | 34,230 | 445 | 8,734 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 16.1 | 105.7 | 87.5 | 982.8 | 5.4 | 167.1 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 75.23 | 45.39 | 557.45 | 34.83 | 82.09 | 52.27 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 75.23 | 45.39 | 557.45 | 34.83 | 82.09 | 52.27 | |
| Trading Currency | INR | INR | INR | INR | INR | INR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |