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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 55,1x - 60,9x | 58,0x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 3,8x - 4,2x | 4,0x |
| Fair Value | ₦4,77 - ₦5,63 | ₦5,20 |
| Upside | -11,6% - 4,5% | -3,6% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Chellarams Plc | CHELLARAM | NGSE:CHELLARAM |
| John Holt Plc | JOHNHOLT | NGSE:JOHNHOLT |
| Grupo Carso, S.A.B. de C.V. | GPOV.F | OTCPK:GPOV.F |
| KAP Limited | KAP | JSE:KAP |
| FTG Holdings Ltd | FTGH | NASE:FTGH |
| SCOA Nigeria Plc | SCOA | NGSE:SCOA |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| CHELLARAM | JOHNHOLT | GPOV.F | KAP | FTGH | SCOA | ||
| NGSE:CHELLARAM | NGSE:JOHNHOLT | OTCPK:GPOV.F | JSE:KAP | NASE:FTGH | NGSE:SCOA | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | NM- | NM- | 16.7% | -1.4% | 7.8% | 27.2% | |
| 3Y CAGR | -34.4% | NM- | 25.8% | -0.4% | -5.4% | -14.6% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 99.1% | 253.2% | -5.5% | 8.1% | -27.9% | -74.1% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 7.0% | 27.9% | 13.2% | 12.4% | 8.1% | 1.1% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 2.7% | 4.3% | 14.6% | 11.0% | 8.9% | 3.9% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 3.2% | 118.0% | 13.9% | 11.1% | 6.9% | 3.2% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 3.2% | 225.9% | 13.2% | 10.7% | 6.9% | 0.8% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.54x | 2.12x | 1.55x | 0.47x | 0.49x | 0.46x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 16.7x | 0.9x | 11.8x | 4.4x | 7.1x | 61.3x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 21.6x | 1.0x | 14.8x | 7.4x | 11.4x | 2491.9x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 0.9x | 7.1x | 16.7x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | -30.3x | -1.0x | 5.6x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 55.1x | 58.0x | 60.9x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 94 | 94 | 94 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 5,171 | 5,443 | 5,715 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (2,252) | (2,252) | (2,252) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 2,919 | 3,191 | 3,463 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 649.8 | 649.8 | 649.8 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 4.49 | 4.91 | 5.33 | ||||
| FX Rate: NGN/NGN | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 4.49 | 4.91 | 5.33 | 5.39 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -16.7% | -8.9% | -1.1% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | CHELLARAM | JOHNHOLT | GPOV.F | KAP | FTGH | SCOA | |
| Enterprise Value | 12,413 | 2,736 | 309,762 | 13,726 | 2,012 | 5,755 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 486 | 257 | 13,693 | 1,218 | 54 | 2,618 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 0 | 78 | 37,695 | 255 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Debt | (7,111) | (658) | (54,163) | (10,536) | (1,858) | (5,374) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | 1,101 | 0 | (20,458) | (261) | 0 | 504 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 6,889 | 2,413 | 286,529 | 4,402 | 208 | 3,503 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 722.9 | 389.2 | 2,254.6 | 2,501.0 | 178.1 | 649.8 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 9.53 | 6.20 | 127.09 | 1.76 | 1.17 | 5.39 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 19.17 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 9.53 | 6.20 | 6.63 | 1.76 | 1.17 | 5.39 | |
| Trading Currency | NGN | NGN | USD | ZAR | KES | NGN | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 19.17 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |