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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 5,2x - 5,8x | 5,5x |
Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 3,3x - 3,7x | 3,5x |
Fair Value | ₨38,84 - ₨56,82 | ₨47,83 |
Upside | -19,5% - 17,8% | -0,8% |
Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
Shahtaj Sugar Mills Limited | SHJS | KASE:SHJS |
Mitchell's Fruit Farms Limited | MFFL | KASE:MFFL |
Shezan International Limited | SHEZ | KASE:SHEZ |
Tandlianwala Sugar Mills Limited | TSML | KASE:TSML |
Unity Foods Limited | UNITY | KASE:UNITY |
Jauharabad Sugar Mills Limited | JSML | KASE:JSML |
- | - | - |
Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
SHJS | MFFL | SHEZ | TSML | UNITY | JSML | ||
KASE:SHJS | KASE:MFFL | KASE:SHEZ | KASE:TSML | KASE:UNITY | KASE:JSML | ||
Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
5Y CAGR | 19.2% | 33.6% | -41.7% | 9.0% | 29.0% | 12.8% | |
3Y CAGR | 1.2% | 53.9% | -61.2% | 26.3% | -10.8% | 26.4% | |
Latest Twelve Months | -63.4% | -36.5% | 1655.1% | -6.2% | -51.0% | -13.8% | |
Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
5 Year Average Margin | 7.8% | -0.8% | 4.5% | 12.2% | 6.4% | 13.8% | |
Prior Fiscal Year | 12.3% | 0.4% | 5.2% | 11.8% | 10.5% | 16.2% | |
Latest Fiscal Year | 6.7% | 10.3% | 0.4% | 15.9% | 3.4% | 13.2% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 4.2% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 14.3% | 4.3% | 9.9% | |
Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
EV / LTM Revenue | 0.76x | 2.09x | 0.42x | 1.25x | 0.77x | 0.54x | |
EV / LTM EBITDA | 18.2x | 31.9x | 8.4x | 8.8x | 17.7x | 5.4x | |
EV / LTM EBIT | 20.1x | 44.8x | 13.9x | 10.1x | 22.1x | 7.6x | |
Low | Mid | High | |||||
Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 8.4x | 17.7x | 31.9x | ||||
Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 3.5x | 5.5x | 7.9x | ||||
Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 5.2x | 5.5x | 5.8x | ||||
(x) LTM EBITDA | 1,131 | 1,131 | 1,131 | ||||
(=) Implied Enterprise Value | 5,929 | 6,241 | 6,553 | ||||
(-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (4,502) | (4,502) | (4,502) | ||||
(=) Equity Value | 1,427 | 1,739 | 2,051 | ||||
(/) Shares Outstanding | 34.1 | 34.1 | 34.1 | ||||
Implied Value Range | 41.82 | 50.96 | 60.11 | ||||
FX Rate: PKR/PKR | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 41.82 | 50.96 | 60.11 | 48.23 | |||
Upside / (Downside) | -13.3% | 5.7% | 24.6% |
Equity Waterfall | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
(in millions) | SHJS | MFFL | SHEZ | TSML | UNITY | JSML | |
Enterprise Value | 6,479 | 5,292 | 3,789 | 45,624 | 57,823 | 6,148 | |
(+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 128 | 33 | 49 | 270 | 19,797 | 864 | |
(+) Investments & Other | 221 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 427 | 0 | |
(-) Debt | (5,247) | (567) | (1,736) | (23,681) | (41,377) | (5,366) | |
(-) Other Liabilities | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Value of Common Equity | 1,580 | 4,758 | 2,108 | 22,214 | 36,669 | 1,646 | |
(/) Shares Outstanding | 12.0 | 22.9 | 9.7 | 117.7 | 1,194.1 | 34.1 | |
Implied Stock Price | 131.52 | 207.98 | 218.17 | 188.72 | 30.71 | 48.23 | |
FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 131.52 | 207.98 | 218.17 | 188.72 | 30.71 | 48.23 | |
Trading Currency | PKR | PKR | PKR | PKR | PKR | PKR | |
FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |