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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 5,6x - 6,2x | 5,9x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 5,1x - 5,6x | 5,4x |
| Fair Value | $97,15 - $108,16 | $102,65 |
| Upside | 0,2% - 11,5% | 5,8% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Murphy Oil Corporation | MUR | NYSE:MUR |
| Diamondback Energy, Inc. | FANG | NasdaqGS:FANG |
| APA Corporation | APA | NasdaqGS:APA |
| Devon Energy Corporation | DVN | NYSE:DVN |
| Cheniere Energy, Inc. | LNG | NYSEAM:LNG |
| ConocoPhillips | COP_KZ | KAS:COP_KZ |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| MUR | FANG | APA | DVN | LNG | COP_KZ | ||
| NYSE:MUR | NasdaqGS:FANG | NasdaqGS:APA | NYSE:DVN | NYSEAM:LNG | KAS:COP_KZ | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | -0.8% | 22.6% | 8.2% | 34.0% | 18.3% | 12.1% | |
| 3Y CAGR | 4.8% | 20.9% | 8.7% | 10.3% | 197.7% | 6.2% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -19.5% | 27.0% | 9.4% | -1.3% | -56.3% | -1.8% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 55.2% | 73.0% | 55.3% | 44.1% | 36.2% | 39.7% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 57.9% | 76.5% | 63.2% | 51.9% | 84.5% | 42.8% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 53.3% | 73.2% | 59.4% | 48.7% | 47.3% | 43.1% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 53.3% | 73.2% | 59.4% | 48.7% | 47.3% | 43.1% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 1.60x | 5.21x | 1.34x | 1.86x | 5.11x | 2.18x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 3.0x | 7.1x | 2.2x | 3.8x | 10.8x | 5.1x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 8.2x | 11.3x | 6.1x | 6.9x | 13.0x | 8.4x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 2.2x | 3.8x | 10.8x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 4.2x | 5.4x | 6.5x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 5.6x | 5.9x | 6.2x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 24,308 | 24,308 | 24,308 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 135,634 | 142,773 | 149,911 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (9,478) | (9,478) | (9,478) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 126,156 | 133,295 | 140,433 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 1,264.2 | 1,264.2 | 1,264.2 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 99.79 | 105.44 | 111.09 | ||||
| FX Rate: USD/USD | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 99.79 | 105.44 | 111.09 | 97.00 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | 2.9% | 8.7% | 14.5% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | MUR | FANG | APA | DVN | LNG | COP_KZ | |
| Enterprise Value | 4,843 | 54,622 | 12,648 | 28,161 | 78,882 | 132,102 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 424 | 161 | 625 | 811 | 2,670 | 6,114 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 0 | 383 | 0 | 727 | 129 | 9,756 | |
| (-) Debt | (2,066) | (13,099) | (6,417) | (9,256) | (26,117) | (25,348) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (148) | (2,126) | (1,082) | (208) | (4,361) | 0 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 3,053 | 39,941 | 5,774 | 20,235 | 51,203 | 122,624 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 142.7 | 292.5 | 364.1 | 648.6 | 222.8 | 1,264.2 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 21.39 | 136.54 | 15.86 | 31.20 | 229.80 | 97.00 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 21.39 | 136.54 | 15.86 | 31.20 | 229.80 | 97.00 | |
| Trading Currency | USD | USD | USD | USD | USD | USD | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |