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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 8,9x - 9,8x | 9,4x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 4,8x - 5,3x | 5,0x |
| Fair Value | R70,25 - R78,95 | R74,60 |
| Upside | -3,5% - 8,5% | 2,5% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Pepkor Holdings Limited | PPH | JSE:PPH |
| Mr Price Group Limited | MRP | JSE:MRP |
| The Foschini Group Limited | TFG | JSE:TFG |
| Woolworths Holdings Limited | WHL | JSE:WHL |
| Motus Holdings Limited | MTH | JSE:MTH |
| Truworths International Limited | TRU | JSE:TRU |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| PPH | MRP | TFG | WHL | MTH | TRU | ||
| JSE:PPH | JSE:MRP | JSE:TFG | JSE:WHL | JSE:MTH | JSE:TRU | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 7.8% | 5.9% | 4.5% | -1.9% | 9.3% | 2.5% | |
| 3Y CAGR | 2.3% | 10.8% | 68.1% | -9.0% | 15.7% | 5.7% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 12.4% | 15.3% | 5.9% | -18.9% | -6.6% | -22.4% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 12.9% | 17.3% | 11.8% | 9.9% | 6.1% | 17.2% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 12.6% | 15.6% | 12.5% | 10.8% | 6.8% | 18.9% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 13.1% | 15.1% | 12.7% | 8.4% | 6.5% | 16.8% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 13.1% | 15.3% | 12.6% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 16.3% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 1.39x | 1.79x | 1.11x | 0.82x | 0.39x | 1.53x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 10.6x | 11.7x | 8.8x | 10.8x | 6.0x | 9.4x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 12.2x | 13.2x | 10.5x | 13.0x | 8.2x | 10.5x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 6.0x | 10.6x | 11.7x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 6.2x | 7.3x | 10.6x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 8.9x | 9.4x | 9.8x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 3,419 | 3,419 | 3,419 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 30,416 | 32,017 | 33,618 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (4,672) | (4,672) | (4,672) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 25,744 | 27,345 | 28,946 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 374.9 | 374.9 | 374.9 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 68.66 | 72.93 | 77.20 | ||||
| FX Rate: ZAR/ZAR | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 68.66 | 72.93 | 77.20 | 72.80 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -5.7% | 0.2% | 6.0% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | PPH | MRP | TFG | WHL | MTH | TRU | |
| Enterprise Value | 118,292 | 68,713 | 61,881 | 64,588 | 43,471 | 31,968 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 4,793 | 2,159 | 2,538 | 5,315 | 1,655 | 1,006 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 0 | 0 | 140 | 1,240 | 794 | 0 | |
| (-) Debt | (24,799) | (8,601) | (22,140) | (20,058) | (30,124) | (5,678) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (226) | (843) | 0 | (66) | (204) | 0 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 98,060 | 61,428 | 42,419 | 51,019 | 15,592 | 27,296 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 3,679.5 | 258.0 | 325.5 | 904.4 | 177.0 | 374.9 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 26.65 | 238.09 | 130.32 | 56.41 | 88.09 | 72.80 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 26.65 | 238.09 | 130.32 | 56.41 | 88.09 | 72.80 | |
| Trading Currency | ZAR | ZAR | ZAR | ZAR | ZAR | ZAR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |