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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 2,3x - 2,6x | 2,5x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 2,6x - 2,9x | 2,8x |
| Fair Value | R186,74 - R197,58 | R192,16 |
| Upside | 30,7% - 38,3% | 34,5% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Thungela Resources Limited | TGA | JSE:TGA |
| New Hope Corporation Limited | OD8 | DB:OD8 |
| Yankuang Energy Group Company Limited | YZCA | BASE:YZCA |
| Yancoal Australia Ltd | YAL | ASX:YAL |
| PT Bumi Resources Tbk | PBMR.F | OTCPK:PBMR.F |
| Exxaro Resources Limited | EXX | JSE:EXX |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| TGA | OD8 | YZCA | YAL | PBMR.F | EXX | ||
| JSE:TGA | DB:OD8 | BASE:YZCA | ASX:YAL | OTCPK:PBMR.F | JSE:EXX | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | NM- | 11.1% | 9.0% | 8.1% | NM- | 15.0% | |
| 3Y CAGR | -15.0% | 35.1% | 1.7% | 1.7% | -18.2% | 0.5% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -26.9% | -14.5% | -17.6% | -34.6% | 516.0% | -22.0% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 32.7% | 48.1% | 27.5% | 38.5% | 4.0% | 30.0% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 26.7% | 64.3% | 35.1% | 44.2% | 4.0% | 33.8% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 16.8% | 48.1% | 30.1% | 32.8% | 5.7% | 25.0% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 16.8% | 50.4% | 30.6% | 32.8% | 6.9% | 25.0% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.06x | 1.21x | 1.58x | 0.58x | 2.35x | 0.35x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 0.3x | 2.4x | 5.2x | 1.8x | 34.0x | 1.4x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 0.6x | 3.3x | 8.1x | 2.6x | 43.6x | 1.9x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 0.3x | 2.4x | 34.0x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 1.4x | 2.7x | 5.5x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 2.3x | 2.5x | 2.6x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 10,193 | 10,193 | 10,193 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 23,736 | 24,985 | 26,234 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 20,231 | 20,231 | 20,231 | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 43,967 | 45,216 | 46,465 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 241.5 | 241.5 | 241.5 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 182.03 | 187.20 | 192.37 | ||||
| FX Rate: ZAR/ZAR | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 182.03 | 187.20 | 192.37 | 142.86 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | 27.4% | 31.0% | 34.7% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | TGA | OD8 | YZCA | YAL | PBMR.F | EXX | |
| Enterprise Value | (393) | 2,323 | 97,916 | 3,993 | 1,070 | 14,275 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 10,121 | 807 | 42,376 | 2,461 | 37 | 20,634 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 2,458 | 323 | 27,739 | 447 | 949 | 22,939 | |
| (-) Debt | (50) | (361) | (116,478) | (112) | (271) | (8,779) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (544) | 0 | (51,552) | (2) | (1,266) | (14,563) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 11,592 | 3,092 | 3 | 6,787 | 519 | 34,506 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 130.3 | 842.7 | 45,092.5 | 1,320.4 | 1,296,478.6 | 241.5 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 88.95 | 3.67 | 0.00 | 5.14 | 0.00 | 142.86 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.75 | 0.01 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 88.95 | 2.10 | 0.01 | 5.14 | 0.00 | 142.86 | |
| Trading Currency | ZAR | EUR | ARS | AUD | USD | ZAR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.75 | 0.01 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |