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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 9,4x - 10,4x | 9,9x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 10,7x - 11,8x | 11,2x |
| Fair Value | Rp99,70 - Rp108,50 | Rp104,10 |
| Upside | -10,2% - -2,3% | -6,2% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| PT Arita Prima Indonesia Tbk | APII | IDX:APII |
| PT Mitra Angkasa Sejahtera Tbk | BAUT | IDX:BAUT |
| PT Sinergi Multi Lestarindo Tbk | SMLE | IDX:SMLE |
| PT Optima Prima Metal Sinergi Tbk | OPMS | IDX:OPMS |
| PT Berkah Prima Perkasa Tbk | BLUE | IDX:BLUE |
| PT Kian Santang Muliatama Tbk | RGAS | IDX:RGAS |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| APII | BAUT | SMLE | OPMS | BLUE | RGAS | ||
| IDX:APII | IDX:BAUT | IDX:SMLE | IDX:OPMS | IDX:BLUE | IDX:RGAS | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | -7.3% | NM- | NM- | NM- | 3.0% | 85.0% | |
| 3Y CAGR | -7.8% | NM- | 15.0% | NM- | 13.6% | 50.9% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -28.4% | -1216.7% | 111.5% | -14.6% | -4.8% | NM | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 18.4% | -0.1% | 7.4% | -15.0% | 15.8% | 10.8% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 20.9% | 4.8% | 4.9% | -51.6% | 16.4% | 14.7% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 13.1% | -6.6% | 7.7% | -10.6% | 14.7% | 12.6% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 14.0% | -14.7% | 8.4% | -25.1% | 13.9% | 6.8% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 1.12x | 1.24x | 1.29x | 2.40x | 0.73x | 0.76x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 8.0x | -8.5x | 15.4x | -9.6x | 5.3x | 11.2x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 11.3x | -7.6x | 24.8x | -5.7x | 5.9x | 14.3x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | -9.6x | 5.3x | 15.4x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 6.3x | 6.3x | 6.3x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 9.4x | 9.9x | 10.4x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 12,643 | 12,643 | 12,643 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 119,086 | 125,353 | 131,621 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 23,499 | 23,499 | 23,499 | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 142,584 | 148,852 | 155,120 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 1,459.2 | 1,459.2 | 1,459.2 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 97.71 | 102.01 | 106.30 | ||||
| FX Rate: IDR/IDR | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 97.71 | 102.01 | 106.30 | 111.00 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -12.0% | -8.1% | -4.2% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | APII | BAUT | SMLE | OPMS | BLUE | RGAS | |
| Enterprise Value | 333,777 | 167,487 | 292,420 | 43,653 | 112,634 | 138,476 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 8,735 | 261 | 55,875 | 13,263 | 18,340 | 30,226 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 26,828 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 237 | |
| (-) Debt | (162,623) | (23,745) | (52,619) | 0 | (1,394) | (6,871) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (20,610) | 2 | (0) | 0 | 0 | (94) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 186,106 | 144,005 | 295,675 | 56,916 | 129,580 | 161,975 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 1,075.8 | 4,800.2 | 2,328.2 | 801.6 | 418.0 | 1,459.2 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 173.00 | 30.00 | 127.00 | 71.00 | 310.00 | 111.00 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 173.00 | 30.00 | 127.00 | 71.00 | 310.00 | 111.00 | |
| Trading Currency | IDR | IDR | IDR | IDR | IDR | IDR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |