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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 15,8x - 17,4x | 16,6x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 80,5x - 89,0x | 84,8x |
| Fair Value | ₺205,43 - ₺230,16 | ₺217,79 |
| Upside | -23,6% - -14,4% | -19,0% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Bagfas Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari A.S. | BAGFS | IBSE:BAGFS |
| Koza Polyester Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi | KOPOL | IBSE:KOPOL |
| DYO Boya Fabrikalari Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. | DYOBY | IBSE:DYOBY |
| Petkim Petrokimya Holding Anonim Sirketi | PETKM | IBSE:PETKM |
| Polisan Holding A.S. | POLHO | IBSE:POLHO |
| Gübre Fabrikalari Türk Anonim Sirketi | GUBRF | IBSE:GUBRF |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| BAGFS | KOPOL | DYOBY | PETKM | POLHO | GUBRF | ||
| IBSE:BAGFS | IBSE:KOPOL | IBSE:DYOBY | IBSE:PETKM | IBSE:POLHO | IBSE:GUBRF | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | NM- | NM- | 50.8% | NM- | 55.5% | 42.9% | |
| 3Y CAGR | NM- | 46.1% | 57.0% | NM- | 39.2% | 86.9% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 67.2% | 9.7% | 0.7% | 60.8% | -31.5% | 62.6% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | -3.5% | 17.7% | 12.2% | 7.8% | 16.0% | 11.8% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | -18.2% | 19.7% | 9.9% | -3.8% | 17.1% | 10.4% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | -14.7% | 16.0% | 11.5% | -1.7% | 15.3% | 11.9% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -14.7% | 16.0% | 11.5% | -1.7% | 15.3% | 15.6% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 4.07x | 1.58x | 0.94x | 0.61x | 1.41x | 3.01x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | -27.7x | 9.9x | 8.1x | -36.1x | 9.2x | 19.3x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | -7.2x | 11.4x | 10.8x | -7.4x | 17.0x | 24.9x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | -36.1x | 8.1x | 9.9x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 7.4x | 25.4x | 63.6x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 15.8x | 16.6x | 17.4x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 5,200 | 5,200 | 5,200 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 82,068 | 86,388 | 90,707 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (9,855) | (9,855) | (9,855) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 72,213 | 76,533 | 80,852 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 334.0 | 334.0 | 334.0 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 216.21 | 229.14 | 242.07 | ||||
| FX Rate: TRY/TRY | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 216.21 | 229.14 | 242.07 | 268.75 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -19.6% | -14.7% | -9.9% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | BAGFS | KOPOL | DYOBY | PETKM | POLHO | GUBRF | |
| Enterprise Value | 6,869 | 7,672 | 10,040 | 47,271 | 8,716 | 99,618 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 74 | 292 | 347 | 8,729 | 509 | 4,182 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 6 | 0 | 1 | 30,271 | 4,080 | 786 | |
| (-) Debt | (4,182) | (1,336) | (4,712) | (44,371) | (1,700) | (9,074) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | 0 | 0 | 0 | 45 | 0 | (5,749) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 2,767 | 6,627 | 5,676 | 41,944 | 11,605 | 89,763 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 135.0 | 1,297.0 | 300.0 | 2,534.4 | 758.5 | 334.0 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 20.50 | 5.11 | 18.92 | 16.55 | 15.30 | 268.75 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 20.50 | 5.11 | 18.92 | 16.55 | 15.30 | 268.75 | |
| Trading Currency | TRY | TRY | TRY | TRY | TRY | TRY | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |