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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 8,0x - 8,8x | 8,4x |
Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 7,1x - 7,8x | 7,5x |
Fair Value | ₺11,65 - ₺12,70 | ₺12,18 |
Upside | 1,3% - 10,5% | 5,9% |
Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
Kocaer Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi | KCAER | IBSE:KCAER |
Ayes Celik Hasir Ve Cit Sanayi A.S. | AYES | IBSE:AYES |
Eregli Demir ve Çelik Fabrikalari T.A.S. | EREGL | IBSE:EREGL |
Koza Anadolu Metal Madencilik Isletmeleri A.S. | KOZAA | IBSE:KOZAA |
Borusan Birlesik Boru Fabrikalari Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. | BRSAN | IBSE:BRSAN |
Çemtas Çelik Makina Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. | CEMTS | IBSE:CEMTS |
- | - | - |
Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
KCAER | AYES | EREGL | KOZAA | BRSAN | CEMTS | ||
IBSE:KCAER | IBSE:AYES | IBSE:EREGL | IBSE:KOZAA | IBSE:BRSAN | IBSE:CEMTS | ||
Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
5Y CAGR | NM- | 48.1% | 30.4% | -8.7% | 49.6% | 62.1% | |
3Y CAGR | 47.9% | -28.2% | -8.3% | -16.7% | 76.2% | 18.6% | |
Latest Twelve Months | -4.9% | -91.6% | -20.4% | -39.7% | -62.8% | -42.8% | |
Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
5 Year Average Margin | 12.7% | 4.8% | 20.2% | 42.7% | 10.7% | 17.9% | |
Prior Fiscal Year | 13.8% | 5.4% | 10.7% | 15.4% | 15.6% | 15.4% | |
Latest Fiscal Year | 9.1% | 0.5% | 9.9% | 12.5% | 5.5% | 11.0% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 11.5% | 0.5% | 8.1% | 12.5% | 4.4% | 11.0% | |
Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
EV / LTM Revenue | 1.53x | 0.23x | 1.10x | 3.78x | 1.08x | 0.85x | |
EV / LTM EBITDA | 13.2x | 47.9x | 13.6x | 30.3x | 24.9x | 7.8x | |
EV / LTM EBIT | 15.7x | -353.8x | 28.9x | -165.9x | 63.8x | 12.4x | |
Low | Mid | High | |||||
Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 13.2x | 24.9x | 47.9x | ||||
Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 3.3x | 6.6x | 21.2x | ||||
Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 8.0x | 8.4x | 8.8x | ||||
(x) LTM EBITDA | 635 | 635 | 635 | ||||
(=) Implied Enterprise Value | 5,080 | 5,348 | 5,615 | ||||
(-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 817 | 817 | 817 | ||||
(=) Equity Value | 5,898 | 6,165 | 6,432 | ||||
(/) Shares Outstanding | 500.0 | 500.0 | 500.0 | ||||
Implied Value Range | 11.80 | 12.33 | 12.86 | ||||
FX Rate: TRY/TRY | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 11.80 | 12.33 | 12.86 | 11.50 | |||
Upside / (Downside) | 2.6% | 7.2% | 11.9% |
Equity Waterfall | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
(in millions) | KCAER | AYES | EREGL | KOZAA | BRSAN | CEMTS | |
Enterprise Value | 28,146 | 1,682 | 227,312 | 34,903 | 54,469 | 4,933 | |
(+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 2,661 | 466 | 71,994 | 10,976 | 4,119 | 1,205 | |
(+) Investments & Other | 0 | 0 | 1,563 | 2,474 | 3,822 | 265 | |
(-) Debt | (4,955) | (784) | (128,158) | (26) | (13,605) | (653) | |
(-) Other Liabilities | 0 | 0 | (8,072) | (15,632) | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Value of Common Equity | 25,853 | 1,365 | 164,640 | 32,696 | 48,805 | 5,750 | |
(/) Shares Outstanding | 1,915.0 | 150.0 | 7,000.0 | 388.1 | 141.8 | 500.0 | |
Implied Stock Price | 13.50 | 9.10 | 23.52 | 84.25 | 344.25 | 11.50 | |
FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 13.50 | 9.10 | 23.52 | 84.25 | 344.25 | 11.50 | |
Trading Currency | TRY | TRY | TRY | TRY | TRY | TRY | |
FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |