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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | -38,9x - -43,0x | -40,9x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 26,6x - 29,4x | 28,0x |
| Fair Value | ₺4,37 - ₺4,83 | ₺4,60 |
| Upside | -45,3% - -39,5% | -42,4% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Erbosan Erciyas Boru Sanayii ve Ticaret A.S. | ERBOS | IBSE:ERBOS |
| Yukselen Celik Anonim Sirketi | YKSLN | IBSE:YKSLN |
| Izmir Demir Çelik Sanayi Anonim Sirketi | IZMDC | IBSE:IZMDC |
| Koza Anadolu Metal Madencilik Isletmeleri A.S. | KOZAA | IBSE:KOZAA |
| Erciyas Çelik Boru Sanayi A.S. | ERCB | IBSE:ERCB |
| Çemas Döküm Sanayi A.S. | CEMAS | IBSE:CEMAS |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| ERBOS | YKSLN | IZMDC | KOZAA | ERCB | CEMAS | ||
| IBSE:ERBOS | IBSE:YKSLN | IBSE:IZMDC | IBSE:KOZAA | IBSE:ERCB | IBSE:CEMAS | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 53.0% | NM- | NM- | -8.7% | 48.1% | 72.3% | |
| 3Y CAGR | 33.8% | NM- | NM- | -16.7% | 52.0% | 8.0% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -64.2% | NM | -139.1% | -73.7% | -9.2% | -171.2% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 17.1% | 15.3% | 6.2% | 37.9% | 13.4% | 11.5% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 18.6% | 13.1% | 3.6% | 15.4% | 7.0% | 4.5% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 13.7% | NA | -2.6% | 12.5% | 8.6% | 3.0% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 10.7% | NA | -0.7% | 9.6% | 8.8% | -5.4% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 1.01x | 1.83x | 0.67x | 2.88x | 1.62x | 3.91x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 9.4x | NA | -90.6x | 30.1x | 18.4x | -73.0x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 12.4x | 49.1x | -13.8x | -248.7x | 32.0x | -19.7x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | -90.6x | 13.9x | 30.1x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 7.5x | 11.9x | 45.1x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | -38.9x | -40.9x | -43.0x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | (85) | (85) | (85) | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 3,305 | 3,479 | 3,653 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (17) | (17) | (17) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 3,288 | 3,462 | 3,636 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 791.0 | 791.0 | 791.0 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 4.16 | 4.38 | 4.60 | ||||
| FX Rate: TRY/TRY | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 4.16 | 4.38 | 4.60 | 7.98 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -47.9% | -45.2% | -42.4% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | ERBOS | YKSLN | IZMDC | KOZAA | ERCB | CEMAS | |
| Enterprise Value | 4,206 | 2,374 | 32,208 | 27,799 | 11,161 | 6,329 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 418 | 43 | 3,347 | 13,873 | 118 | 56 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 6 | 2 | 16 | 2,734 | 1 | 471 | |
| (-) Debt | (1,020) | (821) | (22,004) | (25) | (4,776) | (375) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | 0 | 0 | (4,881) | (16,652) | 29 | (169) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 3,610 | 1,598 | 8,685 | 27,728 | 6,533 | 6,312 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 20.0 | 250.0 | 1,500.0 | 388.1 | 77.8 | 791.0 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 180.50 | 6.39 | 5.79 | 71.45 | 84.00 | 7.98 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 180.50 | 6.39 | 5.79 | 71.45 | 84.00 | 7.98 | |
| Trading Currency | TRY | TRY | TRY | TRY | TRY | TRY | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |