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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | -8,3x - -9,2x | -8,8x |
Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 3,2x - 3,5x | 3,3x |
Fair Value | €6,95 - €7,68 | €7,32 |
Upside | -15,0% - -6,0% | -10,5% |
Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft | 1BMW | BIT:1BMW |
Mercedes-Benz Group AG | 1MBG | BIT:1MBG |
Volkswagen AG | 1VOW3 | BIT:1VOW3 |
Honda Motor Co., Ltd. | HDM | DB:HDM |
General Motors Company | 1GM | BIT:1GM |
Stellantis N.V. | STLAP | ENXTPA:STLAP |
- | - | - |
Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
1BMW | 1MBG | 1VOW3 | HDM | 1GM | STLAP | ||
BIT:1BMW | BIT:1MBG | BIT:1VOW3 | DB:HDM | BIT:1GM | ENXTPA:STLAP | ||
Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
5Y CAGR | 5.3% | 38.0% | 3.7% | 13.9% | 14.6% | 4.7% | |
3Y CAGR | -5.7% | -5.4% | 5.9% | 11.7% | 3.6% | -26.5% | |
Latest Twelve Months | -45.3% | -42.5% | -9.8% | -33.9% | -12.7% | -112.3% | |
Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
5 Year Average Margin | 9.6% | 9.6% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 9.1% | |
Prior Fiscal Year | 11.8% | 11.5% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 12.1% | |
Latest Fiscal Year | 7.9% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 4.0% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 5.5% | -1.5% | |
Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
EV / LTM Revenue | 1.09x | 0.53x | 0.81x | 0.58x | 0.90x | 0.16x | |
EV / LTM EBITDA | 10.1x | 5.7x | 9.9x | 8.8x | 10.2x | 10.5x | |
EV / LTM EBIT | 16.3x | 8.6x | 12.8x | 12.8x | 16.3x | -11.1x | |
Low | Mid | High | |||||
Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | 8.6x | 12.8x | 16.3x | ||||
Historical EV / LTM EBIT | 0.9x | 1.5x | 7.8x | ||||
Selected EV / LTM EBIT | -8.3x | -8.8x | -9.2x | ||||
(x) LTM EBIT | (2,121) | (2,121) | (2,121) | ||||
(=) Implied Enterprise Value | 17,674 | 18,604 | 19,534 | ||||
(-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 29 | 29 | 29 | ||||
(=) Equity Value | 17,703 | 18,633 | 19,563 | ||||
(/) Shares Outstanding | 2,888.7 | 2,888.7 | 2,888.7 | ||||
Implied Value Range | 6.13 | 6.45 | 6.77 | ||||
FX Rate: EUR/EUR | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 6.13 | 6.45 | 6.77 | 8.18 | |||
Upside / (Downside) | -25.0% | -21.1% | -17.2% |
Equity Waterfall | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
(in millions) | 1BMW | 1MBG | 1VOW3 | HDM | 1GM | STLAP | |
Enterprise Value | 146,666 | 124,902 | 262,798 | 12,468,870 | 169,765 | 23,589 | |
(+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 15,465 | 21,208 | 58,463 | 4,172,303 | 20,939 | 30,971 | |
(+) Investments & Other | 1,476 | 11,905 | 0 | 2,169,930 | 4,846 | 10,313 | |
(-) Debt | (106,344) | (106,017) | (255,918) | (11,872,585) | (137,049) | (40,849) | |
(-) Other Liabilities | (2,160) | (889) | (15,138) | (265,964) | (2,096) | (406) | |
(-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Value of Common Equity | 55,103 | 51,109 | 50,205 | 6,672,554 | 56,405 | 23,618 | |
(/) Shares Outstanding | 615.8 | 962.0 | 501.3 | 3,992.4 | 952.1 | 2,888.7 | |
Implied Stock Price | 89.48 | 53.13 | 100.15 | 1,671.33 | 59.24 | 8.18 | |
FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 171.49 | 1.17 | 1.00 | |
Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 89.48 | 53.13 | 100.15 | 9.75 | 50.76 | 8.18 | |
Trading Currency | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | |
FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 171.49 | 1.17 | 1.00 |